Vladimir, You Don't Have Any Trump Cards

Dmitry Chernyshev
20.08.2026, 8:57
5,520

And Ukrainian drones will be flying in more and more often.

It's strange that there are people in Russia who don't understand that the situation with both gasoline and diesel in the country can only get worse. And it will definitely get worse. Because the government has already pulled all the trump cards it had up its sleeve and laid them on the table. But these are one-time cards, and there are no others.

Russia had a strategic fuel reserve for a rainy day. That reserve is being depleted right now, and there is no other reserve, nor is there anything to replenish it with.

Russia has banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel. This can only be done once.

Russia has lowered the quality of gasoline to the absolute limit. It cannot be lowered any further.

Russia has maximized its gasoline imports from Belarus. Belarus physically cannot produce any more than that. And there’s a very real chance that some kind of accident could occur at the local refineries. Suddenly.

Russia has canceled scheduled maintenance at its refineries that are still operating. And such things don’t go unnoticed either. There will be man-made accidents even without drones.

Russia tried to buy gasoline abroad. But it turned out to be so expensive that they haven’t even started unloading the tanker yet—no one wants to sell at a loss.

That’s it. As one politician put it: “Vladimir, you have no trump cards.” And Ukrainian drones will be flying in more and more often.

And now, about where all this is headed in the very near future. Because the lines are just the tip of the iceberg. Now for the real problem.

Due to the sharp rise in fuel prices, nearly the entire agricultural sector in Russia has already become unprofitable. And the harvest is still ahead. This means that this winter, farmers will face mass bankruptcies, the slaughter of livestock, and the sale off of equipment, while this spring will see a sharp reduction in planted acreage. It’s not even certain that they’ll be able to harvest this crop—why work at a loss?

The ban on fuel exports is a severe blow to oil companies; it becomes more profitable for them to cut back on refining than to operate at a loss in the regulated domestic market. There is no foreign currency, and tax revenues are plummeting.

Peak demand periods are still ahead: the harvest season, the return from vacations, the start of the school year, and then the switch to winter diesel fuel. Fights break out in gas lines, scalpers sell cans at triple the price, and school buses in regional centers run out of diesel—as a result, only the wealthy will be able to get around in their personal cars. And the poor haven’t even fixed their engines yet because of the lousy gasoline. The problem of traffic jams in Moscow will resolve itself.

A sharp rise in regional separatism. Governors, whose heads are on the line for “stability,” are starting to hoard fuel for themselves: imposing informal bans on fuel exports instead of sending gasoline to Moscow. Let me remind you that many governors already have their own armies.

Smart oil executives aren’t rushing to repair their refineries. Why invest millions in extremely costly repairs if drones will fly in again tomorrow and destroy everything? No one knows what will happen with winter fuel deliveries. People in the north may have to be evacuated on short notice. No one knows what the planes will fly on. There’s already a shortage of jet fuel. No one knows how to supply the army amid a diesel shortage. How will trash be hauled out of the cities? How will food be delivered to stores? And by how much will these prices rise? And what will happen in Crimea without fuel and electricity?

And new Ukrainian drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles are on the way.

Dmitry Chernyshev, Facebook

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Vladimir, You Don't Have Any Trump Cards

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