Why Did Lukashenko "Back Down"?

Three reasons.

The sudden shift in by dictator Lukashenko regarding Ukraine may indicate either his desire to join U.S. President Donald Trump’s Peace Council, or the influence of China, which strongly opposes the escalation of the conflict and nuclear blackmail. But the most significant factor may have been the report of hundreds of potential targets on Belarusian territory.

This opinion was expressed by Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, as reported by "Channel 24".

Lukashenko recently gave an interview to a Saudi publication in which he unexpectedly apologized to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Although the content of this conversation was likely coordinated with Moscow, Lukashenko’s statement that Belarus is “as clear as day” to Ukraine served as an explanation for why Minsk cannot afford to go to war against Ukraine.

“This is also a signal to Moscow, so that they understand why Lukashenko doesn’t want to get involved in the war against Ukraine. But just a month ago, in May, he was lashing out at Zelenskyy, and now he’s apologizing? I can only speculate, but in my opinion, several factors are at play here,” said Fesenko.

The first reason, according to the political scientist, may be Lukashenko’s desire to attend the Peace Council meeting in September, as this offers a chance to break out of diplomatic isolation. At the same time, the U.S. side has set its own conditions: the release of political prisoners and an end to aggressive rhetoric.

The second factor could have been the meeting with the deputy leader of China Xi Jinping, which took place a week earlier. China has consistently opposed nuclear threats and the subsequent escalation of war, and has no interest in seeing hostilities spill over into Belarusian territory. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Chinese partners strongly advised Lukashenko to do the right thing.

“Third, this may be a bit of a conspiracy theory, but when Robert Brovdy, head of the Unmanned Systems Command, mentioned 500 targets in Belarus, Lukashenko defiantly replied that one target was enough for him—Kyiv. Apparently, someone spelled it out for him that dozens of these targets were specifically his locations, with exact coordinates. “He doesn’t have a bunker like Putin’s—and that may have had a stronger influence than the advice from Washington and Beijing,” Fesenko opined.

As a reminder, in a recent interview with Al Arabiya English, Lukashenko took a cautious stance on the war in Ukraine: he ruled out the possibility of Belarusian troops participating in combat operations, citing a lack of resources, the risk of strikes on infrastructure, and the threat of a direct confrontation with NATO. Despite echoing Russian narratives about successes on the front lines, Lukashenko acknowledged the effectiveness of Ukraine’s defense and expressed his willingness to act as a mediator in negotiations.

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