"That's What They're Talking About In The Kremlin Right Now"

Borislav Bereza explained what consequences strikes on Moscow would have for Putin.

Following a nighttime drone attack, Moscow once again saw fires and huge plumes of smoke. Moscow authorities have already acknowledged that the drones reached the Kapotnya oil refinery.

What did Ukrainian drones manage to hit in Moscow last night, and how severely was the Kapotnya oil refinery damaged?

The website Charter97.org posed these questions to Ukrainian politician and former Verkhovna Rada deputy Borislav Bereza:
— Let’s start with the fact that the oil refinery in Kapotnya was struck not only by Ukrainian drones but also by Russian air defense systems. And this is clearly visible in the video. What our drones failed to finish off, the Russians themselves successfully took care of.

It’s clearly visible that the famous strike on the tank—where the lid flew off—didn’t happen because of a drone strike, but because Moscow’s clumsy and cross-eyed air defense system missed the drone but hit the tank instead. And you can’t help but applaud that. Wonderful, simply wonderful work by the Russian air defense.

In addition, there was a fire in exactly the same way, and there’s also a video, at the “Sadovod” shopping center, which occurred after a drone was shot down above it. It crashed and exploded right on top of it. If the Russian air defense forces hadn’t interfered with the Ukrainian drones, the strikes would have been limited to specific targets, rather than other infrastructure facilities. But apparently, the Russians believe that if someone’s place is on fire, then everyone’s should be. I can’t help but agree.

Let’s talk right away about the fact that the Kapotna oil refinery is on fire—it supplies 40% of the region’s gasoline and 70% of Moscow’s gasoline. In addition, it also produces other products, but the most important thing is that a huge number of gas stations in Moscow are closed today. That’s the first point.
Second—prices are rising amid the realization that there won’t be any more supply from there in the near future. And third, most importantly: for the first time, Russians have seen what it’s really like when the strikes actually hit.

And all of this happened because of two things. Indeed, due to regular attacks, the Russians were forced to expend a huge number of anti-drone missiles and other equipment. This led to a shortage, and now they simply do not have enough of them. That is precisely why they are no longer automatically shooting down drones but are using man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) instead. As a result, we see that Ukrainian drones have breached the Russian air defense system because the missiles and means to shoot them down are lacking. And this points to one more thing: in the near future, everyone else will rush into this breach as well.

And considering that it’s 15 kilometers from Kapotnya to the Kremlin, the outlook for the Russians isn’t great. And even redeploying other air defense assets to this sector will leave other vulnerabilities exposed, which our intelligence is also tracking. Plus, U.S. space intelligence provides real-time information, so we’ll clearly understand where another window—another gap—will open, and where the drones will fly.

That’s why I believe this is a very successful attack. And for the first time, this is truly not just a wake-up call, but a death knell for the Russians: look, the war has come to you. Is the “Special Military Operation” really going according to plan? Is this the war you started in the first place? Did anything like this happen before February 24, 2022? And if not, then why did this happen, and who is to blame?
In addition to the physical damage Russia has suffered and the economic damage, there will also be a moral collapse. For the first time, Russia has seen the war reach its capital. This means the “special military operation” is definitely not going according to plan—and that means something is definitely wrong. And most likely, the realization will dawn that the war is turning in a different direction. We’ll soon see if there’s a shift in the minds of Russians.
— Moscow is increasingly resembling a new Tuapse: the plumes of smoke and the scorched earth can no longer be hidden, even from the Russian elite. How do such strikes on the capital affect Putin’s inner circle and their willingness to continue the war against Ukraine?

— Let me say this right away: these strikes have absolutely no effect. They don’t care. Moreover, I clearly understand that the only thing that will affect this whole crowd is strikes on the oil refineries they own, the ports they own, the shopping centers they own—everything that brings them money. That’s what has a serious impact.

As soon as their businesses start to suffer, they begin to realize that they really don’t need this war. And the fact that there is discontent among the Russian elite, is reported by the Western press, and is also written about by local Russian bloggers themselves. So there’s nothing new here.

But could this have an impact? Let’s put it this way: I wouldn’t mind if a palace coup took place in Russia. The only thing is, there need to be leaders for it to happen. And for now, there are no leaders. Although everything is coming together into a very interesting puzzle.

If everything that’s happening now leads to something else—for example, I know that stories are currently circulating in the Kremlin about possibly declaring a general mobilization and trying to rally the people around that—then this will trigger even more social unrest. Because Russians are willing to watch a war, but they’re not willing to participate in it.

This is proven by the fact that the number of people signing up for paid military service is constantly falling, not to mention those who would be mobilized.

Putin has driven himself into a weak position. And his inner circle remains silent for now—or is quietly whimpering. When they start speaking up—we’ll see. Maybe that will happen.

— Every strike against Moscow is a painful blow to Putin personally and to his myth of the capital’s “invulnerability.” How might a dictator backed into a corner react?

— Putin might respond with a massive bombardment of Ukraine, launching the last “Oreshnik” missile at Kyiv, or making some high-profile statements. That’s all he has left. He really doesn’t have any more weapons left.

And then there’s the announcement of the start of mass mobilization. That’s all Putin has at his disposal right now. But the problem is that after that, he won’t even have any trump cards left.

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