"Muscovites Will Have To Go Skiing"

Roman Svitán explained how Ukraine could cut off gasoline supplies to the Russian capital.

Ukraine dealt a powerful blow to Moscow last night, striking the “heart” of an oil refinery. The website Charter97.org spoke with retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel, military expert, and flight instructor Roman Svitan about the consequences of this strike and more:

— This is the so-called Kapotninsky Oil Refinery, which is already about a hundred years old. Lenin had it built back in his day. Remember him in that photo with the log? Well, that was him in Kapotna. They were just starting to build it back then, and this refinery, in principle, supplied half of Moscow’s needs. The other half, by the way, was supplied by the Mozyr Oil Refinery.

Now we can say that the Kapotninsky Oil Refinery has been shut down. The strike targeted the crude oil pretreatment unit. This is the “heart” of the plant. Without this pretreatment, the crude oil cannot be separated into fractions.

The SBU selected a precise, appropriate target for the drone strike. A single drone was enough, in principle, to completely halt the production cycle at this plant.

Just a few weeks ago, the Russians began building an additional mounting platform for the “Pantsir.” They had practically finished building it, but they hadn’t yet managed to move the “Pantsir” into position. This made it possible to bypass one “Pantsir” system on the outer ring road outside the Moscow Ring Road (MKAD) and pass through the MKAD, striking this plant. It is literally right next to the MKAD, southeast of Moscow.

They’re currently trying to put out the fire at the refinery, but it definitely won’t be operational anytime soon. To completely cut off Moscow’s supply, we need to cut off the oil supply to the Mozyr Oil Refinery. The best option is to strike at Unecha. Unecha is home to a pipeline control station that supplies the Mozyr Oil Refinery with oil from Tatarstan via the “Druzhba” pipeline.

If we manage to cut off the “Druzhba” pipeline as well, more than half of Muscovites will be left without fuel. They’ll have to get around on skis.
— How did the SBU manage to breach Moscow’s air defense system?
— Most likely, by operating in a mode that exceeded the saturation coefficient. The Russians say they shot down about 60 drones today, and if they were approaching the “Pantsir” system—which was located outside the Moscow Ring Road near Kapotnya (there’s another “Pantsir” system there), they simply exhausted that “Pantsir” system’s capacity with drones.

While the “Pantsir” was reloading, one or two drones got through. This is called exceeding the saturation coefficient along a single azimuth. In other words, they didn’t approach from all directions, but specifically overran that one “Pantsir.” Yes, they lost several dozen drones, but just one is enough to set the oil on fire, so they accomplished their mission.
— Could such strikes become a regular occurrence?
— They were already a regular occurrence before this; it’s just that they hadn’t been able to break through. If the Russians had managed to deploy an additional “Pantsir” system in the Kapotnya area, believe me, there wouldn’t have been this strike today, because then their saturation coefficient along that single azimuth would have been over a hundred.

There is a high concentration of air defense systems in the Moscow area. At any given moment, they can engage 700 targets across all azimuths if they attack from a star-shaped formation. That, by the way, is the saturation coefficient: 701 drones might get through, but that’s too many. It makes sense to shoot down 700 drones to let just one reach Moscow—on May 9 alone.

However, the efficiency is actually quite good—the plant has been shut down. The SBU takes a comprehensive approach to carrying out its tasks, not ruling out the possibility that certain actions were taken there involving the introduction of interference, that is, electronic warfare. A whole range of measures to suppress air defense systems. It wasn’t just a matter of “slipping through.” Our SBU is doing a great job. We now have pilots, sailors, submariners, and cosmonauts among them.

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