ISW: The Kremlin Can't Even Defend Its Own Capital

An unpleasant truth for Putin has come to light.

Over the course of the week, Ukraine launched its second large-scale attack on Moscow. These repeated strikes against well-defended Russian targets deep behind enemy lines—such as the capital—further expose Russia’s weaknesses and its inability to protect its own population.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts continue to assess that the increase in the frequency, scale, and depth of Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against major, well-protected Russian cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg demonstrates the vulnerability of Russia’s air defense and the dilemmas the Kremlin faces in managing the domestic costs of the war.

“Ukraine’s series of nighttime strikes has inflicted significant damage, even though Russian military bloggers claim that air defense has achieved a high interception rate of around 90%. At the same time, Ukraine is expanding its UAV capabilities in such a way that even a relatively small number of drones that reach their targets have a significant impact,” the report states.

The ISW believes that reports of a shortage of certain Russian interceptor missiles could further strain Russia’s already stretched air defense resources. In particular, CBS News recently reported, citing its own sources, that Russia is experiencing a shortage of S-300 air defense missiles, though it did not provide a quantitative estimate of the shortage.

Specifically, one Ukrainian official reported that Russia has a shortage of key components for S-300 interceptor missiles—including homing heads and control modules—due to Western sanctions. CBS noted that Russia is increasingly turning to more advanced air defense systems to protect against missile strikes. Furthermore, according to sources, the Russians have even repurposed S-300 missiles for “surface-to-surface” strikes against Ukraine.

At the same time, sources noted that Russia still has other systems, more advanced than the S-300, to defend against attacks. However, CBS analysts added that Ukrainian strikes using more advanced UAVs have forced Russian troops to counter these attacks with interceptor missiles, which they traditionally used against missiles.

“This is likely depleting Russia’s stockpiles of more advanced interceptors, as S-300 missile stocks are also dwindling,” the Institute for the Study of War concluded.

As a reminder, on the morning of June 18, explosions rocked Moscow. The Russian capital came under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones.

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