"Lukashenko Has Been Backed Into A Corner And Has Reached His Limit"

20.09.2026, 16:51
15,010

The West will continue to impose sanctions on the dictator.

Historian and political scientist Roza Turarbekova wrote about why it will become increasingly difficult to free political prisoners and how this depends on the war in Ukraine:

— The release of political prisoners, as well as the resumption of negotiations in general, is a good thing. The bad news is that only 25 were released, rather than the 200–300 that had been promised. I won’t make light of this. But I would like to note that difficulties in the negotiation process are to be expected.

What’s so predictable about this? The fact is that there are fewer and fewer sanctions to use as bargaining chips, while there are a great many political prisoners. Bargaining is taking place, completely openly. That’s the reality of negotiations. That’s the method. Bargaining, by the way, is the most common method for tough negotiations with dictators or when power is being divided.

So why are difficulties arising? The package of mutual concessions is small, while there are many restrictions. The ceiling has almost been reached. It’s not Cole’s fault that the release process isn’t leading to an end to the repression. Because he sees his mission as securing releases, not preventing repression. He’s trying to articulate the latter, but there’s no mutual understanding.

What’s good about the latest release? The fact that it happened. Almost the entire list consists of well-known people and those who received harsh sentences, such as Tanya Kuzina (10 years). Rescuing these people comes at a high cost. And, most importantly, there is hope for more to come.

The ceiling is determined simply by the existence of sanctions and discussions about the return of the embassy. The latter, by the way, was left for last.

No matter how much I think about it, the main factor is the context of the war—its reverberations in Europe. Trump wants to end the war, but it isn’t ending. And that means Cole’s mission to unblock transit is nearly impossible. That is the ceiling. Lukashenko wants the Baltic ports opened but isn’t budging. This means that securing the release will become increasingly difficult.

The optics of the war are becoming increasingly important.

On the other hand, despite the deadlock in Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, bargaining is underway between Minsk and Washington. And this means there is hope for the start of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations as well. If they begin and progress is made, then Belarus’s situation will change, and the unblocking of the Baltic ports is quite possible.

Ukraine’s position is significant. It remains firm toward Minsk. This means that Europe will stick to its old sanctions policy for now. Ukraine may change its stance toward Minsk, but the conditions for such a change are security guarantees for Kyiv.

The reopening of the ports for Belarus—as well as the lifting of European sanctions in general—is linked to a ceasefire in Ukraine and security guarantees for the country. Once again, we’ve come full circle. Lukashenko must change, or he must be replaced.

Yes, despite this vicious cycle, there are always options for positive development. It’s just that so far, no one (Lukashenko, Putin) wants to change the situation for the better. That’s why Lukashenko is spouting all this nonsense about there being no political prisoners. He’s all too aware of his own limitations.

This means he’s been backed into a corner and might start bargaining—not over ports, but over something else. It just takes some time to come to this realization. I hope that moment comes soon. Perhaps, in time, we’ll see a shift in Lukashenko’s position, as he doesn’t want to lose the Americans.

"Lukashenko Has Been Backed Into A Corner And Has Reached His Limit"

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