Reuters: China Is Postponing An Invasion Of Taiwan For Several Reasons
8- 1.10.2026, 11:11
- 3,800
That is unlikely to happen in 2027.
U.S. officials consider the likelihood of a war breaking out between China and Taiwan by 2028 to be extremely low.
This was reported by Reuters.
Although Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to prepare for a possible forceful takeover of the island in 2027, this is unlikely to happen.
According to U.S. officials, several factors are influencing Beijing’s plans. One of the key factors is a delay in achieving the necessary level of military readiness due to the Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign.
Another important reason is the PRC’s intention to first wait for the results of Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election.
According to media reports, Beijing expects that after the election, a political force that is more favorable toward China establishing control over Taiwan may come to power on the island.
In the U.S., there is a growing belief that if the Democratic Progressive Party retains power and secures a fourth term, this could prompt Beijing to consider a military option in 2028 or later.
It is also important to understand that the reelection of Taiwan’s current president, Lai Ching-te, could become an additional source of tension.
“If that happens, I think 2028 will be quite tense,” one U.S. official told reporters.
The Chinese leader’s decision may also be influenced by the U.S. presidential election, which will take place in 2028. Insiders have speculated that Xi Jinping may want to wait for the results of those elections.
At the same time, there is no consensus among U.S. officials regarding how significant this factor is for Beijing.
Currently, U.S. authorities have concluded that China has carefully analyzed the experiences of the wars in Ukraine and Iran. In all likelihood, Beijing will decide to act as quickly as possible if a war breaks out in order to avoid protracted hostilities.
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