Ukrainian Intelligence: Putin Fears The Russian Elite

The analysis by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is based on actual documents intercepted from the Russian Federation.

There is a split within the Kremlin into two factions over the war against Ukraine, and the dictator Putin himself fears his own elite.

This was stated a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Vadym Skibitsky during the YES Annual Meeting 2026 conference organized by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation.

According to the GUR representative, Ukrainian intelligence’s analysis is based on actual documents intercepted from the Russian Federation. Currently, at least two distinct groups can be identified within Putin’s inner circle:

- the first advocates for continuing the war against Ukraine;
- the second seeks to halt hostilities through a negotiation process.

“During potential negotiation procedures, it becomes evident that the regime genuinely fears internal collapse and destabilization within the country,” Skibitsky noted.

In addition, data tracking domestic political dynamics in the run-up to elections in Russia showed a noticeable drop in support for pro-government parties, particularly “United Russia.”

“This was a clear signal to the regime,” said a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU).

According to Skibitsky, Putin fears the influence of the oligarchs, bearing in mind the experience of the Mikhail Khodorkovsky case. Evidence of this concern can be seen in specific steps taken by the Russian authorities:

- the adoption of new mobilization laws;
the expansion of the security services’ powers through stricter security decrees;
- media reports about the possible reprivatization of companies and enterprises in Russia
- “I believe that it should be a priority for our international partners to clearly understand who among the Russian elite truly wants to stop the war, and who seeks to continue it,” - he added in response to a question about whether the West has the opportunity to “buy off” oligarchs who disagree with the dictator.

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