GUR: The Kremlin May Launch An Offensive From Belarus In February

Possible destinations include the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions.

If Russia carries out a mobilization this year, it may well launch a new offensive in the northern direction—toward the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions—as early as this winter. This was stated by Major General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

“Until the elections, they’ll try to demonstrate some kind of success on those sections of the front where they can make a difference. And after that—there may be a mobilization,” he noted.

He recalled that the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, and a partial mobilization in Russia began in the second half of October 2022. Combat units capable of actually engaging in battle arrived at the front in January 2023, while some of them had already arrived in December.

“In other words, if the aggressor carries out a new wave of mobilization this year, they will be able to prepare a powerful strike force closer to February, at the beginning of next year. And this doesn’t rule out the possibility that the Russian command could organize such an operation in February, given Putin’s fondness for symbolic dates,” he said.

At the same time, the timelines will depend on how many people are mobilized—and whether there is a mobilization at all.

Skibitsky emphasized that, while an offensive from the north is theoretically possible this year, “in practice, there are no conditions or indicators suggesting they are ready for such an operation, and there are no troops available for it.”

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