Zelenskyy's Statement Sparks Speculation

On the 40-day operation to influence Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he had approved a 40-day SBU operation aimed at influencing Russia to encourage an end to the war.

This statement in itself raises questions. An analytical quest begins—the search for an answer to the question: what kind of special operation could this be?

Given the specific duration of this special operation—40 days—it most likely refers to a set of military actions designed to achieve a specific military-political outcome capable of pushing the Kremlin toward negotiations to end the war.

From this perspective, in my view, there are two most likely scenarios:

1) Logistical isolation of Crimea, which specifically involves putting the Kerch Bridge out of commission. The commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) Robert Brovdy promised to do this in July. The 40-day period expires on August 4. The timing almost coincides.

2) The creation of a “fuel and logistics collapse” in the European part of the Russian Federation as a result of the systematic destruction of key Russian oil refineries and oil infrastructure. Supporting this version is the fact that Zelenskyy announced this special operation immediately after the report by the acting head of the SBU Yevhen Khmara regarding the plan for “long-range sanctions” and “medium-range sanctions.” In Ukrainian political terminology, this phrasing traditionally refers to the physical destruction of critical economic facilities in the Russian Federation.

But this raises another question: why has this task been assigned specifically to the SBU?

Both of the aforementioned options involve “deep strikes” and “mid-range strikes.” Such strikes on Russian territory and on occupied territories are carried out not only by the SBU, but also by the SBS, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, and the Ukrainian Air Force. Perhaps the SBU will be the planner and coordinator of such a special operation? Although, according to the logic and general practice of military management, the overall planning and coordination of such operations should be carried out by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Since we are talking about an SBU special operation, there are also expectations that it could be something like Operation “Web.” This possibility cannot be ruled out either. However, projects such as Operation “Spider Web” are unlikely to force Russia into peace talks.

So the intrigue and a certain air of mystery surrounding this 40-day special operation remain. And just in case, it’s important to keep in mind that the Kremlin’s response to this special operation may not be limited to agreeing to peace talks. It is also important to understand that even in an ideal scenario, if the Kremlin does agree to peace talks, it will not be after 40 days but much later, and it will not happen publicly—so that it does not appear to be a concession on Russia’s part, let alone a defeat.

In conclusion, I would note that, from a symbolic standpoint, a 50-day timeframe should have been set for this special operation. Then its conclusion would have coincided precisely with the anniversary of the meeting between Putin and Trump in Anchorage.

Vladimir Fesenko, Facebook

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