"Putin Is In Total Gridlock."

What decision is being prepared in the Kremlin and what will happen afterward?

Ukraine's strikes against strategic facilities in Tuapse are not only inflicting significant economic and military losses on Russia, but are also increasingly shaking up the situation inside the country.

These attacks are hitting the interests of elites and exacerbating tensions between regions, gradually undermining Moscow's position as a center of influence. Specially for 24 Kanal, experts broke down what trap Putin has fallen into and what non-obvious processes have begun in Russia.

What decision by Putin could spell disaster for Russia?

American journalist and historian David Sutter said that the Kremlin's decision to block Telegram, one of the most popular messengers among citizens, causes outrage among the population and at the same time negatively affects the effectiveness of the Russian army.

The historian suggests that if in the fall of 2026 the Russian authorities decide to carry out a general mobilization, in his opinion, Putin will prepare the public for this step in advance. He is concerned about the reaction of citizens, so limiting access to information may be part of this preparation.

"In particular, the Kremlin fears the growth of opposition to both the political regime and the war itself, even among so-called 'patriotic' circles," Sutter notes.

He also does not rule out that the authorities will continue to assure citizens of full control over the situation, while preparing a large-scale mobilization. However, in his opinion, an increase in the number of military personnel will not change the situation on the front, but will only lead to new losses.

Sutter drew attention to the low level of training of many Russian military: often after two weeks of training they are immediately sent into combat operations. In this case, the decision to mobilize could have serious consequences for Putin.

"Dissatisfaction with the war existed from the very beginning. Not all military and special services representatives support it. In particular, earlier General Ivashov warned about the catastrophic consequences of the war with Ukraine, and Prigozhin said that it was unleashed for far-fetched reasons," the historian recalled.

The journalist also emphasized that doubts and fears are gradually growing in Russian society, and opposition sentiments are emerging. Some citizens are beginning to realize that the head of the Kremlin can lead the country into decline.

At the same time, according to Sutter, it is unknown whether these people will have the strength to stop Putin in the event of a crisis. However, he is convinced that such steps as general mobilization will not strengthen Russia's position, but will only cause even greater losses.

What non-obvious processes in Moscow are triggering the Tuapse strikes?

Military observer Ivan Tymochko said that Ukraine's strikes on Tuapse inflict significant losses on Russia - not only economic and military, but also entail internal destabilization.

Tuapse is of fundamental economic importance. A large port, assets of Russian oligarchs and shadow trade structures are located there. Therefore, the attacks directly hit the financial interests of the Moscow elites.

In addition, such attacks exacerbate tensions between different regions of Russia. In particular, there is growing discontent with Moscow, which is often perceived as a secluded and privileged center, indifferent to the problems of other territories.

According to the military observer, this undermines the role of the capital as a unifying center. It is increasingly arousing not respect but envy, irritation and even hostility among residents of other regions.

"The Tuapse bombings demonstrate the Kremlin's failure or unwillingness to properly protect the regions it is actively using in its war against Ukraine. At the same time, such attacks on less-protected targets could be a preparation for potential strikes on Moscow," Tymochko said.

With this background, other regions of Russia may need to strengthen their air defenses. To maintain a semblance of control, the Kremlin will probably be forced to move some air defense systems out of the capital, which could weaken its defenses.

At the same time, Russian authorities are trying to hide the consequences of the attacks as much as possible, so there is little information about actual losses. According to him, it is important for Ukraine to apply resources in a balanced manner.

By the way, after a drone attack on an oil refinery in Tuapse, a large-scale fire broke out with thick smoke, because of which some local residents had to be evacuated on April 28.

What kind of disaster is Putin leading up to?"

In the opinion of strategic communications specialist and publicist Yuri Bogdanov, even Putin realizes that blocking the Internet is not aimed at overcoming drone attacks. Most likely, the Kremlin took such a desperate step in order to contain the deterioration of the Russians' mood.

But this leads to the opposite results. The mood of the population is deteriorating even faster and discontent continues to grow, particularly amid the Ukrainian strikes.

"Putin is caught in a whirlwind of managerial crisis, when decisions are made quickly and incorrectly. It seems that the dictator is now just in this vortex," Bogdanov noted.

The dictator is passing more and more laws that are detached from reality. And in the end, this only aggravates his situation, but he cannot give up this policy.

The publicist believes that Putin has driven himself into complete hopelessness and a critical trap from which there is no way out. However, now, thanks to Donald Trump, he can still try to freeze the war along the line of demarcation. All other scenarios lead him to disaster.

What problems do Russians have against the backdrop of the war?

The Russian army is experiencing an increasingly acute shortage of personnel, equipment and drones - affected by sanctions, strikes by the AFU and internal corruption. In particular, there are cases when commanders sell humanitarian aid intended for the military, forcing them to buy the necessary equipment themselves.

At the same time, the financial condition of Russia's regions is deteriorating: in 2026, the deficit of their budgets may increase to 1.9 trillion rubles. The reasons for this are a drop in income tax revenues and an increase in social spending.

With this background, consumer behavior is changing. During the year the number of discounters in Russia increased by more than a quarter, and their revenue - by more than two-thirds. Such dynamics indicates a growing demand for cheap goods and indirectly points to a decline in household incomes.

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