Ukrainian MP: Lukashenko May Be Left Without A Refinery

Kiev harshly outlined the price of a new aggression from the Belarusian territory.

Vladimir Zelensky has warned that Russia is once again trying to drag the Belarusian army into a war against Ukraine. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba confirmed: a number of signs suggest that the Lukashenko regime is preparing for a military escalation.

What exactly could Russia be preparing on the part of Belarus and what role do Lukashenko and the Belarusian army have in this?

This is the question Charter97.org asked the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from the party "Servant of the People" Oleh Dunde:

- My conviction, based on what I see over the past few years, is the following: Belarus is actually a fake state. And a sign of this is that it has no armed forces in fact. That is, formally, as a symbol of the state, it has armed forces, but this army is not capable of performing any serious tasks as such, it practically does not exist. And, accordingly, it is very naive to expect any aggression from Belarus in this case.

Plus, Belarus is not a capable state. In fact, it is a part of the Russian Empire and is fully governed from Moscow, being under its full control.

Could the Russian army organize an invasion from the side of Belarus into northern Ukraine, into the northern regions? Theoretically, yes. Practically, again, it is unlikely, because the landscape conditions there do not allow to organize it, do not allow to create the necessary fortification and defense structures. Therefore, it is highly doubtful that someone in sober memory (although what kind of Moscow and sober memory are we talking about) will make such a decision - to launch an operation directly to invade Ukraine from Belarus. It is not February 2022, and conditions have changed dramatically.

The only option that is being considered here is, most likely, that Russia realizes how vulnerable southern Belarus is, and realizes that any operation related to the Baltic States will imply risks of an alternative operation from the south, from Ukraine. And in order to level such risks, they can build defensive fortifications in order to untie their hands along the Baltic.

- What will be Ukraine's actions if the Lukashenko regime does make its territory available again for aggression against Ukraine?

- It's very simple. There are two Belarusian oil refineries - they will stop working. This is the first thing.

And the second thing: Minsk is not far away, so it is not excluded that some shrapnel can hit Lukashenko's residence. And the dictator will be left without both the refinery and his favorite spitz Umka.

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