Five Factors That Will Determine Peace In Ukraine

Such are the prospects for a genuine peace agreement.

Negotiations to end the war in Ukraine may reach a new level. Kyiv and Moscow are preparing for a trilateral meeting with the U.S., tentatively scheduled for November 10 in Abu Dhabi. However, the chances of a deal depend on five key issues—from security guarantees and territorial claims to Europe’s stance and Washington’s willingness to engage with Ukraine, writes Politico.

1. First steps toward a ceasefire. The talks may address prisoner exchanges, a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, and the establishment of a “ceasefire” in the Black Sea. These agreements could serve as the foundation for a broader accord.

2. Security guarantees. Kyiv needs reliable guarantees from the U.S. and its European allies, including possible NATO involvement. Moscow, on the other hand, demands limits on the alliance’s expansion and military presence.

3. The territorial issue. Possible compromises, including the creation of a buffer zone in the Donbas, should be discussed directly by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, and the United States.

4. European involvement. European countries provide the bulk of military and financial aid to Kyiv, and future peacekeeping forces will likely be predominantly European. France, the United Kingdom, and Germany are already working out options within the framework of the “Coalition of the Willing.” But there is still no single European representative at the negotiating table.

5. Washington’s stance and the Kremlin’s intentions. Escalation surrounding Iran could divert U.S. attention away from Ukraine. European capitals also doubt that Putin is truly interested in ending the war, and are preparing to step up support for Kyiv and increase sanctions pressure on Moscow.

Whether these issues can be resolved will determine not only the possibility of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Putin, but also the prospect of a genuine peace agreement.

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