"Russia Is Like Something Out Of An Old Soviet Joke"

Putin is leading Russian business toward ruin.

Attacks on Wildberries warehouses continue, and the collapse of Russia’s largest marketplace is becoming increasingly likely.

How will the collapse of a giant like Wildberries affect Russia’s economy and its ability to wage war?

The website Charter97.org posed this question to Ukrainian politician and former Verkhovna Rada deputy Borislav Bereza:
— Look, in 2022–2023, Wildberries’ main entities alone paid about 70 billion rubles in taxes annually. By 2025, the total tax bill had already exceeded 130 billion rubles. Furthermore, we must take into account that the company processes a huge number of orders. We’re talking about billions. That’s no exaggeration. For example, Ozon processes 2.5 billion orders a year, and it’s several times smaller than Wildberries. Wildberries is a platform linked to Russia’s four largest banks. And one of them, VTB, is already starting to get nervous amid everything that’s happening.

It’s like the joke: if you owe the bank a million, that’s your problem. But if 100,000 people each owe the bank a million, that’s the bank’s problem. So here, there’s a huge number of sellers. Wildberries itself and many other businesses are tied to loans. The destruction of this business hits Russia’s economy harder than anything else. Moreover, this also affects related businesses. These include delivery, warehouses, logistics, customer service, accounting, and food service. It’s a massive business ecosystem that could drag down more than a million taxpayers in Russia.

Furthermore, it’s important to understand that Wildberries plays a role in supporting the war effort. Let me explain what I mean. Today, this logistics system is being used to supply the Russian military. Its product range includes body armor, drone components, fiber-optic cables, military communications systems, and much more. Previously, they delivered all of this to the front lines very quickly and efficiently, providing the killers with the means to wage war against Ukraine. Now, serious problems have arisen with this, and it’s a problem for Russia.

In addition, Wildberries provided a certain level of convenience for Russians. They got used to it: order with two clicks—and receive it. But now there’s nowhere to order from, and it won’t be possible to receive goods quickly. A huge number of those who previously worked with Wildberries simply do not have their own delivery and logistics systems.
All of this together creates a massive problem for the Russian Federation. And most importantly, Wildberries is one of the largest taxpayers in Russia. We’re not the only ones who understand this. Wildberries’ competitors understand it too—they realize they’ll be next.
Next will be Ozon, followed by Yandex Market. Next will be Pyaterochka and all the rest. Everyone who pays taxes and funds the war will be next. The “Krasnoye & Beloye” chain, in particular, needs to brace itself—it has distribution centers even in Podolsk, in the Moscow region. And vodka—even if it’s not the best quality—will burn even better than Wildberries’ warehouses. All of this can be stopped in an instant. To do so, the war must be stopped. If the war stops, other businesses will not suffer, neither in Russia nor in Ukraine.

I want to point out that the attacks on Wildberries began precisely after Russia systematically destroyed the “Nova Poshta” logistics hubs, the warehouses of the ATB store chain, and book warehouses. In general, this is very telling. Barbarians always fight against books. By burning down the book warehouses of the “Knigolav” and “Ranok” publishing houses, the Russians are showing that they are waging war not only against the Ukrainian army but also against Ukrainian culture. A significant number of book warehouses were specifically targeted for destruction.

That is why Russia is now facing a boomerang effect. And it is already clear that Wildberries will fall. Wildberries will never be the same business it once was. Even the announcement that Wildberries is moving to Kazakhstan and building warehouses there with a total area of about 270,000 square meters doesn’t change anything. I’m sorry, but a warehouse covering nearly 170,000 square meters was destroyed in Krasny Bor. This is one massive warehouse for oversized cargo, comparable in scale to a significant portion of all the facilities they plan to build in Kazakhstan. And these are just plans for 2027. It’s unclear when and how they’ll be implemented. What about logistics? What about the cost? And everything else? Wildberries’ business will be destroyed in response to the destruction of business in Ukraine.

If the business community wants to stop this, let them bring down Putin. That’s the only option. Because the only person who can stop the war is Putin. But he doesn’t want to stop it. Consequently, the Russians who supported the war—and Wildberries, which also supported it, including by selling goods for the “special military operation”—are responsible for everything that’s happening. They had a special section for such goods. They’ve hidden it now, but it was there before.

— Along with Wildberries’ warehouses, the goods and assets of the Russian elite are going up in flames. Can Wildberries openly speak out against Putin and the war?

— Let’s look at the impact of the strikes on Wildberries and see how it affects other similar businesses. The strikes on Wildberries have consequences for them as well. After systematic strikes on the company’s warehouses, Ozon’s stock began to fall. First, they fell by 7%, then by 9%, and then by 12%. They will continue to fall. Investors realize that these shares are losing value. Ozon will suffer in exactly the same way and, consequently, will incur losses. That is why investors are starting to sell off their shares.

It’s worth noting separately that not only Russians but also foreigners have invested in Ozon. This shows that Russia is losing its appeal as an investment destination. Will the elites realize this? Of course. They already do. And the drop in Ozon’s stock price shows that a reaction is already underway. But will they speak out against Putin? That’s their choice. Do they want to preserve their assets? They may oppose Putin. And that would be logical. Do they want to lose their assets? Let them watch in silence as first the Wildberries warehouses burn, then Ozon, and then all the rest.

— Z-bloggers are already talking about a possible defeat, and Russians are openly complaining about the economic catastrophe. Where might this discontent lead?

— I don’t believe there will be a revolt in Russia. Because, as we know, a Russian revolt is senseless and merciless. This phrase comes from Pushkin; it appears in his novella *The Captain’s Daughter*. It’s a very accurate literary description.

But in reality, Russians today are simply doormats who accept having their internet cut off and taxes raised to the maximum. They’re herded like cattle into meat grinders. They watch in silence as they’re deprived of the opportunity to travel the world. They see the cost of living rising. And all of this is solely because Putin wants to go to war with Ukraine. Their lives are getting worse, but they do nothing.

Today, they perfectly illustrate an old Soviet joke. A father comes home and says to his son:
— Son, vodka has tripled in price.

— Dad, does that mean you’ll drink three times less?

— No, son, it means you’ll eat three times less.

Russians will live worse, but, like the long-suffering people they are, they’ll continue to stay silent. Although you should never rule out the possibility of some random event. Maybe some drunk sailor will suggest storming, if not the Winter Palace, then at least the Kremlin. And maybe something will come of it.

Prigozhin almost succeeded. But even he demonstrated just how pointless his rebellion was. He didn’t see it through to the end, and that cost Prigozhin his life. So will there be a rebellion in Russia? I doubt it. There’s a chance, but it’s very small.

A conspiracy among the elites, however, is possible. It could lead to a radical change in the situation in Russia. They’ll pin everything on Putin and say: “It’s his fault, not ours.” Yes, that could happen. And that, by the way, could create an opportunity for negotiations. I’d like to remind you that similar scenarios have already played out in human history. For example, Nazi officers were prepared to kill Hitler or remove him from power in exchange for Germany’s withdrawal from the war. Unfortunately, Operation Valkyrie failed at that time.
Russia is also familiar with more successful stories involving a silk scarf, a snuffbox, and others. So let’s see what happens in the near future. But for now, there is nothing in Russia to suggest that such a scenario is possible.

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