Cole Realizes That Lukashenko Will Remain Silent

Why is Trump's special representative openly mocking the ruler?

John Cole expects that a large group of Belarusian political prisoners will be released “in the very near future.” Donald Trump’s special envoy made this statement in an interview with The New York Times. Cole is clearly poking fun at Alexander Lukashenko and oversimplifying the nature of negotiations with him, reducing the essence of the talks to crude jokes and drinking together.

According to the publication, the special envoy “began building a relationship with Lukashenko through raunchy jokes, shots of vodka, and weight-loss advice. Their rapport paved the way for Belarus to release 500 political prisoners and pardon several hundred more.”

More on vodka and crude jokes

This is clearly playing on the stereotypical perceptions most Americans have of Russia—from which Belarus, in their view, hardly differs much. The only things missing from this description are bears and a balalaika.

Cole recounted once again how skillfully he went along with Lukashenko as he railed against Europeans. “He was berating them left and right, and then I said, ‘They’re a bunch of cowards,’” the American diplomat said in an interview, clarifying that he had actually used a cruder word.

This was also not the first time Cole had recounted how, after drinking two shots of vodka with the Belarusian autocrat, he began pouring the rest onto the floor to stay sober during the negotiations.

From such an account, an overseas reader might conclude that the ruler of this distant country can be bought using primitive methods, just like the chief of a primitive tribe. He downed a shot of hard liquor—and went soft.

Why does Cole describe the process in this vein? First, he probably wants to show off his ability to find the key to the heart of a dictator little known overseas. Second, it seems he doesn’t deny himself the pleasure of mocking this rather peculiar dialogue partner a little, portraying him in a caricatured light.

At the same time, the special envoy understands that Lukashenko cannot afford to respond with public mockery, because this dialogue is more important to him than it is to Washington.

But the point, one must assume, isn’t just that Cole wants to show off or be ironic. This highly experienced lawyer is surely shrewd enough not to reveal the true behind-the-scenes dynamics of the negotiations.

The dictator isn’t that simple

And these behind-the-scenes dynamics are surely more complex than “John, do you respect me?” Lukashenko isn’t the kind of simpleton who can be won over with crude humor or outwitted over a drink.

It’s no coincidence that Cole’s visit, originally scheduled for May, has yet to take place. As those in the know say, Minsk is haggling tenaciously over a pardon for a new group of political prisoners.

Let’s try to imagine the contours of this bargaining.

On the one hand, Cole surely wants the number of prisoners pardoned this time to be at least as high as in March, when 250 were released. In general, as The New York Times reports, he “wants to secure the release of all remaining Belarusian political prisoners.”

On top of that, the Americans have begun insisting that there be no new arrests.

On the other hand, Lukashenko is surely afraid of selling out too cheaply. The list of prisoners is shrinking, but there are still many demands. He wants the Americans to lift the remaining sanctions, reopen their embassy in Minsk, and pressure Europe to allow the transit of potash, etc.

And the biggest sticking point is the issue of repression. No matter how many shots the ruler drinks with the American envoy, he soberly understands that the regime is largely sustained by fear.

The main thing is that this diplomacy works

In an interview with The New York Times, Cole stated that he has two goals in Belarus: to free prisoners and to ensure that its government “wants to join the family of nations.”

He surely means the democratic community. But Lukashenko once declared that he would not lead his people into the civilized world.

We see that it is easier for him to find common ground with the leader of an aggressive Russia, Iranian fanatics, the North Korean dictator, the Afghan Taliban, and the head of the Myanmar junta.

Yes, personally, Lukashenko would like to legitimize himself through the American track. However, softening the regime—that is, sawing off the branch he’s sitting on—is out of the question.

It’s clearly beyond Cole’s capabilities to drink enough vodka with the dictator to make him enthusiastic about leading Belarus toward Western democratic standards.

However, although the special envoy oversimplifies many things in his interview, he would hardly be throwing words to the wind by announcing the imminent release of yet another group of the regime’s prisoners. So his diplomacy is working—and that’s what matters.

Alexander Klaskovsky, “Pozirk”

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