"Lukashenko Already Has These Projects Marked Down"

Ukraine issued a warning to the Belarusian dictator.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that if Russia carries out a mobilization this year, it could very well launch a new offensive on the northern front—toward the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions—as early as this winter.

Will there be a mobilization in Russia, and if so, is an offensive from Belarus possible? The website Charter97.org discussed this with Ukrainian military and political analyst Alexander Kovalenko of the “Information Resistance” group Alexander Kovalenko:
— There will be a mobilization in Russia in any case, but here we should consider three main scenarios for how it might unfold and for what purposes. The first scenario is mobilization to hold onto the territories that Russia has currently seized and to continue a creeping advance in the Donetsk region. This would allow Russia to continue the war not only until the end of 2026, but also at least until the end of the first half of 2027.
The second scenario involves opening a second front on Ukrainian territory. But I don’t think Belarusian territory will be used specifically for this purpose. First, it is impossible to secretly prepare such a large number of forces and resources that would be effective for an offensive operation against Ukraine from Belarusian territory. All of this will be noticeable, without a doubt. Second, Ukraine will not view these events with the same tolerance and restraint as it did in 2022, but will strike back—destroying Belarus’s infrastructure.

As Robert “Madyar” Brovdi said in one of his statements: We already have 500 targets on our list. That is, at least 500 facilities. I don’t think Belarus’s air defense will be able to cope with what Ukraine is currently doing in Russia.
We could set aside, for example, 3–4 days—maybe a week—and with such an influx of weapons, all of Belarus’s infrastructure would be destroyed. And this is very important for both Lukashenko and Putin, since Belarus has long since become a hub of military-industrial enterprises for Russia—a place where repairs, recommissioning, and and modernization of Russian military equipment—whether it is being removed from storage or transported to combat zones for repair.

Belarus has become a supplier to Russia of gasoline and a range of other products. On top of everything else, Belarus has become a hub for legalizing dual-use products from other countries that were originally intended for smuggling—for example, Chinese chemical products used to manufacture explosives for Russian missiles and ammunition, or machine tools and microchips that are integrated into Belarusian products and shipped to Russia under Belarusian brand names. Lukashenko and Putin are taking advantage of this.

If all of this is dismantled, not only will the dictator Lukashenko himself lose his business, but so will Putin. Therefore, I have my doubts as to whether Putin will risk this. On top of everything else, there are serious doubts as to whether it is even possible to conduct a successful full-scale offensive operation against Ukraine from Belarusian territory at this time.

Therefore, if something like this were to take place, it would most likely originate from the Bryansk region, or Russia would consider opening another theater of operations against one of the European countries. The risks are very high for the Baltic states, especially Estonia.

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