The Ukrainian Flag On The Kinburn Spit: An Analyst Explains What's Happening
3- 25.06.2026, 16:55
- 2,892
It is important for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to liberate this territory.
The Ukrainian flag, flying on the Kinburn Spit, which has been occupied by Russia since 2022, may indicate part of a phased operation by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the south of the country.
Regarding possible developments and the significance of this location unian.net was discussed by Alexander Kovalenko, a military and political analyst with the “Information Resistance” group .
According to him, the Kinburn Spit is of great strategic importance, as it allows the occupiers, for example, to launch strikes, carry out raids, and conduct various types of sabotage toward Ochakiv, throughout the Mykolaiv region, and even toward the Odesa region.
In addition, he added, the Russians holding this bridgehead can partially control and block the Dnipro Estuary.
“Therefore, the Kinburn Spit is of vital importance for navigation on the Dnieper, for Ochakiv, for Mykolaiv…, since the presence of Russian occupation forces there means only one thing—any movement through the Dnieper Estuary poses a serious threat of strikes against various targets. This has significantly restricted navigation in this area; it limits the capabilities of Ochakiv and Mykolaiv and poses a threat even to Odesa and the Odesa region,” the analyst emphasized.
Therefore, Kovalenko stressed, it is very important that the Kinburn Spit be cleared—and “not just part of it,” but in its entirety. This concerns the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions—from the “Beloberezhye Svyatoslav” National Nature Park (Mykolaiv Oblast) to the Yagorlytskyi Nature Reserve (Kherson Oblast), and possibly even further—to the “Berezovi Kolky” Forest Reserve (Kherson Oblast).
“This would be the ideal scenario for the Dnipro Estuary to be completely transformed into a relatively safe zone. This would significantly improve the security situation for Mykolaiv, Ochakiv, Odesa, and, to some extent, for Kherson,” Kovalenko explained.
Strikes Against Enemy Logistics
The analyst added: if the Russians are indeed withdrawing from the Kinburn Spit, it is, in particular, a result of the Defense Forces gradually “cutting off” Russian logistics in the Kherson region, as well as thanks to operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia front.
“I should note that logistics in the Kherson region are more complicated than in the Zaporizhzhia region or even on the Crimean Peninsula. We’re talking about the M-57, M-17, and R-47 highways… But if we consider only the western part of the spit and the administrative border with the Mykolaiv region, there aren’t that many major highways here—just the 22-16, which leads to Bekhtery (a city in the Kherson region—ed.). “And if we take this border as our reference point, everything beyond Lake Adzhygol (Crimea—ed.) is an area that may soon find itself in a very interesting position,” the expert said.
Accordingly, the Defense Forces now have a wider range of tools and capabilities at their disposal to influence the occupied part of the Kherson region than could have been imagined, say, a year ago, Kovalenko noted. However, he added, actions of this nature could accelerate the processes related to the liberation of certain locations and territories in the near future.
Is it possible to hold the spit after the enemy withdraws?
“It’s all quite logical here: if the Russian occupiers abandon certain positions, those positions don’t remain empty—someone has to occupy them,” Kovalenko noted.
At the same time, he noted that, despite the importance of the Kinburn Spit, it is very difficult to keep it under the control of the military forces stationed there. Therefore, if such an operation is to be carried out, it must “extend” beyond the eastern shore of Lake Adzhil.
Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims
You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]
