How Will The Military Operation Against Lukashenko Unfold?

If the dictator fails to comply with the terms of Zelenskyy's ultimatum.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave Alexander Lukashenko a week to remove devices from the border area that help Russia guide drones toward Ukraine. Otherwise, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will remove them.

What kind of devices are we talking about, and how will we know they’ve been destroyed? And if there’s no strike, what might that mean? A military expert and columnist for the “Information Resistance” group Alexander Kovalenko answered these questions for “Euro Radio” were answered by military expert and columnist for the “Information Resistance” group Alexander Kovalenko.

— I believe we’re talking about repeaters. They have already been mentioned repeatedly. These are repeaters used to stabilize communications and to ensure connectivity for drones that are heading toward western Ukraine across the northern borders and approaching Belarusian territory,” the expert asserts.

— How does a repeater work?

— When drones approach Belarusian territory, the communication channel can be stabilized from the Belarusian side using these repeaters.

This reduces the likelihood of the drone being jammed by electronic warfare systems and allows the operator to maintain control over the drone until it reaches its target along the border, provided the communication channel is relayed through Belarusian territory,” explains Kovalenko.

— Where are these facilities located? Will the strike be launched deep into Belarusian territory?

— These facilities are not located deep within Belarusian territory. To ensure stable communication, they must be located in the border zone,” the expert asserts.

— I assume the coordinates and locations of these repeaters are already known to the Ukrainian defense forces, and they can be neutralized.

This also applies to reconnaissance equipment operating within Ukraine, as well as other means that allow the Russian contingent stationed in Belarus to obtain the necessary information to assess the locations of Ukrainian units, their composition, capabilities, and so on, — says the analyst.

— Does Ukraine need to coordinate such a strike with its allies? Are we talking about precision strikes or an invasion by the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

— If this equipment remains in an area from which it can support strikes on Ukrainian territory—including using “Shahed-136” kamikaze drones— then Ukraine will make its own decisions regarding the destruction of both these relay stations and other technical assets that assist Russia.

We will act independently. I think that’s exactly what was meant: Ukraine will carry out precision strikes against these targets.

This is not about some large-scale military operation or anything of the sort. Ukraine has no intention of waging war against Belarus on Belarusian territory.

However, Ukraine is fully capable of remotely neutralizing all threats located on Belarusian territory that pose a danger to Ukraine. Technically and technologically, this is, in principle, entirely possible,” Kovalenko is convinced.

— How will we know that a strike has been carried out?

— If such a strike is carried out, it will either be officially reported by the Belarusian side—if they do not attempt to conceal it—or officially announced by the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces or the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Since such strikes are captured on camera, verification—confirmation that the strike was successful and hit its target—will also be published.

This footage will be published on one of the official channels: either that of the Unmanned Systems Forces, the Ukrainian Defense Forces, or the President of Ukraine directly. In other words, it will be an official statement from an authorized source,” the expert explains.

— And if the strike does not take place, what will that mean?

— There are two possible scenarios. First—Lukashenko has indeed withdrawn these systems from the border with Ukraine, and they are no longer being used to provide technical and technological support for Russian strikes.

Second—certain agreements may have been reached regarding the use of these systems. And even if they were not deactivated or withdrawn, they may have been switched to a different operating mode.

In any case, this mode of operation will be monitored: whether it is being used to support airstrikes on Ukrainian territory or is functioning for domestic purposes. Depending on their configuration, such repeaters can be used in various scenarios.

In this case, as has been stated repeatedly, it has been confirmed that these repeaters are being used to provide precise guidance for Russian kamikaze drones in Ukrainian airspace.

If they are reconfigured, let them continue to operate. If they are not reconfigured, they will be destroyed.

Alternatively, they can be moved deeper into Belarusian territory—to a distance at which they will lose functionality and cannot be used to guide these objects in Ukrainian airspace,” concludes Alexander Kovalenko.

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