The Russian Army Suffered A Major Defeat In Donbas

The occupiers are effectively surrounded.

Russian forces in Ukraine were forced to abandon more than 200 square kilometers on the main axis of their offensive in the Donetsk region, losing a key foothold near Lyman, from which they had planned to attack the Donbas “fortress cities” from the north.

This was reported OSINT analyst Clément Molen, and was later confirmed by Rochan Consulting and the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

As a result of a four-month-long counteroffensive and several mechanized assaults, the Ukrainian Armed Forces successively liberated Novoye (in June), reached Kolodezy by mid-August, and then carried out another assault between Katerynivka and Novolyubivka, effectively cutting off the advancing Russian force. As a result, the Russian army lost 240 square kilometers and failed in its operation to encircle the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk metropolitan area from the north, according to Konrad Muzyka , head of Rochan Consulting .

The outcome of the Ukrainian operation was the complete nullification of Russia’s territorial gains since early March, writes the ISW. In addition to the northern front, Russian troops are attempting to encircle the belt of fortress cities from the south.

Ukrainian troops managed to break through a “very old line of defense” and effectively entered the deep rear of the Russian force operating in Lyman, notes military expert Valery Shiryaev. Russian forces in this area are “effectively surrounded,” he believes: “This is largely an operational encirclement, but a tight one: Russian soldiers are still holding out in many settlements in the Shandrigolovo area, and their only supply route is by air.”

“We can confirm the retreat of the Russian army,” Shiryaev continues: The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ advance was gradual, with one settlement after another falling into the gray zone where Russian troops had previously felt secure. By cutting off the salient near Lyman, Ukrainian forces thwarted the Russian command’s plans to encircle the fortress cities, writes the ISW.

Z-channels acknowledge the “deterioration of the tactical situation” near Lyman. “Rybary” attributes what is happening to “systematic lies in reports to higher-ups” and, as a result, “an incorrect assessment of the situation.” “Based on the experience of the Kupiansk sector, where similar problems were addressed with unprepared assaults, this will lead to new casualties. Withdrawing reserves from other sectors of the “West” group’s area of responsibility to cover the gaps near Liman will create breaches in the defenses, which the enemy will undoubtedly exploit,” the channel writes.

In fact, “history is repeating itself with Kupyansk,” Shiryaev believes: “In exactly the same way, the very same commander of the ‘West’ group, Kuzovlev, reported successes in Kupyansk, after which he was even awarded the title of Hero of Russia. Then everything turned around, but the command and the top political leadership had already managed to announce it to the whole world. (...) The situation now is much worse than it was in Kupyansk.”

Military analysts, however, unanimously agree that it is too early to speak of a turning point on the front. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive will delay the “offensive on northern Donbas,” notes Molen, and Shiryaev agrees. Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin claim that Vladimir Putin expects the military to fully capture the Donetsk region within the next six months. Previously, the Kremlin had set the end of the year as the deadline, and since the start of the war, Putin has pushed back the “deadlines” for Donbas at least 15 times, according to the ISW.

“A disastrous summer for the Russian army has ended, and fall is beginning with a massive scandal surrounding Svyatogorsk,” — notes military analyst Yan Matveev: instead of capturing the city, Putin faced a large-scale counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, resulting in the liberation of critically important territory. “For Russian troops, this crisis is more of a local one, but it is still a crisis—it would be foolish to deny it. Meanwhile, important prospects are opening up for Ukrainian forces across the entire Slavic front,” Matveev believes.

“If the Ukrainian Armed Forces achieve their goals, fully consolidate their positions there—with no one to interfere—and deploy their drone operators and so on to capture the entire area, then the firing range will change. Further south is a force advancing toward Nikolaevka and Slavyansk. The drone operators in the Liman area—Ukrainian, potentially, not right now but in the future—will have a range of 10–15 km for these FPV drones. “And en masse, without much risk, and in complete safety, they will begin striking the rear of the group advancing on Slavyansk,” Shiryayev describes the scenario.

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