SBU Major General: Lukashenko Is Afraid Of Ukraine's Real Response
1- 27.05.2026, 16:40
- 3,168
The price of any escalation for Minsk has risen sharply.
Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Force Robert "Madyar" Brovdi has warned Lukashenko again: if Minsk decides to attack, Ukraine will respond with strikes on Belarus. According to "Madyar," the first 500 targets have already been selected.
What targets can we talk about? The site Charter97.org talked about it with SBU Major-General in the reserve Viktor Yagun:
- One should not take the words about "500 targets" as a threat to the Belarusian people. In the logic of such statements, it is first of all a signal to the Lukashenko regime. They mean not civilian objects, but military, logistical, command and other infrastructure that can be used for aggression against Ukraine: airfields, control points, warehouses, supply centers, air defense and electronic warfare facilities, places of deployment of Russian or Belarusian troops.
-Ukraine is not interested in a war with the Belarusians. But if the territory of Belarus is again used for an attack, it may cease to be a safe rear for the regime and the Russian military presence. This is how the meaning of the "500 targets" warning can be interpreted.
- Under what condition will the AFU really strike the Lukashenko regime?"
- The key condition is the direct involvement of the Lukashenko regime in a war against Ukraine.
This may mean not only the introduction of Belarusian troops, but also the provision of territory for offensive actions of Russian forces, launching missiles and attack drones, deployment of aircraft, control systems or logistical support for aggression.
In other words, if the territory of Belarus is used as a springboard for attack, Ukraine may consider this as a basis for exercising the right to self-defense. In this logic, we are not talking about a "strike against Belarus," but about actions against the military infrastructure involved in the aggression.
- After the warnings of Zelensky, Macron, and now "Madyar," Lukashenko has become noticeably quiet. Is it fear of a real response from Ukraine or a pause before a new provocation?
- Most likely, several factors have coincided here.
First, Lukashenko realizes that a significant part of the Belarusian society does not support participation in the war.
Secondly, there are serious doubts about the real readiness of the Belarusian army to participate in combat operations outside the country.
Thirdly, in recent years, Ukraine's long-range defeat capabilities have significantly increased compared to 2022.
Therefore, the price of any escalation has become much higher for Minsk.
But this does not mean that the risk has disappeared. Lukashenko traditionally uses pauses for maneuvering: he tries to balance between demonstrating loyalty to Moscow, putting pressure on the West and avoiding direct military confrontation.
- How can Putin use Lukashenko's army in the near future?
- There are several most likely scenarios. The first: a demonstrative buildup of forces near the Ukrainian border to force Ukraine to withhold some resources to the north.
Second: provocations on the border, creating the appearance of a threat, information operations, sabotage scenarios or attempts to present the situation as a "Ukrainian provocation."
Third: use of the territory of Belarus for Russian drones, missiles, aviation, REB and logistics without formal entry of the Belarusian army into the war.
Fourth: creation of a controlled crisis near the borders of Lithuania, Latvia or Poland in order to pressure NATO and divert attention from Ukraine.
- Is the scenario of a strike or provocation against the Baltic States from the territory of Belarus possible?
- A large-scale attack on the Baltic States looks less likely now, as it would mean a direct clash with NATO.
But provocation scenarios look much more realistic: the use of drones, airspace violations, migration pressure, sabotage, cyberattacks, information campaigns and local incidents on the border.
For Putin, Belarus remains a convenient territory of the "gray zone": formally it is a separate state, in fact it is a country that is highly dependent on Russia in military and political terms.
That is why the issue of an independent and democratic Belarus concerns not only the future of the Belarusians themselves. It is also an important security element for Ukraine and the whole Eastern Europe.
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