Swedish Intelligence: Putin's Entourage Misleads Him

The head of the Kremlin may not be aware of the real state of the economy.

Sweden has intelligence that Russia systematically distorts economic statistics to mislead Ukraine's Western allies. This was stated in an interview with Financial Times by the head of Sweden's Military Intelligence and Security Service Thomas Nilsson.

According to him, the purpose of such actions is to create the impression that the Russian economy is successfully coping with the consequences of the war and sanctions. However, as Nilsson noted, in reality it has not recovered even amid rising oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.

He explained that in order to cover Russia's budget deficit, the price of Urals oil needs to stay above $100 per barrel for a long time. If prices stabilize, especially if the U.S. and Israel maintain a ceasefire with Iran, it will be more difficult for Moscow to finance the war against Ukraine.

At the same time, according to the intelligence chief, even official Russian data is already alarming. For example, Vladimir Putin recently reported a 1.8% decline in GDP in January-February, and Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina said that foreign economic conditions are worsening.

Nilsson believes that the real situation is even worse: according to his assessment, inflation in Russia is much higher than the official 5.86% and may be closer to the key rate of 15%. In addition, he noted that according to German intelligence agency BND, Russia is understating its budget deficit by about $30 billion. There were also some financial indicators that may indicate the risks of a banking crisis.

Nilsson admitted that Vladimir Putin may not have the full picture of what is happening in the economy. However, he emphasized, even with distorted information, it will not be possible to avoid real consequences in the long term.

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