Putin Shows His Hand
2- Victor Shlinchak
- 28.10.2026, 14:07
The Kremlin has begun introducing new points into the discussion on ending the war.
Putin is laying his cards on the table and negotiating over issues he has previously raised. It’s strange that those who are still capable of influencing geopolitics haven’t realized this yet
So, what are we talking about?
The Kremlin is beginning to introduce new points into the discussion on ending the war. And the first of these is a clarification of the concept of “security guarantees for Russia.” According to Putin and his inner circle, a peace treaty with Ukraine can be signed if NATO withdraws from its borders with Russia. In other words, all those who have joined the Alliance since the 1990s must be stripped of their membership status. Essentially, this refers to the 16 countries that have joined since 1999: from Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary to Finland and Sweden.
And this is not merely a maximalist demand voiced in Munich in 2007 (regarding the Alliance’s expansion), but also an open explanation that the war in Ukraine serves as a pretext for initiating a discussion about a large-scale geopolitical realignment. And therefore, a war between Russia and Europe is simply inevitable, for by its very nature it will also be existential in character.
We are talking about the 16 countries that have joined since 1999
Russia constantly speaks of threats against itself, claiming that it has been deceived and that its place in the world is not being taken into account. And this is despite the fact that no one has ever even considered an attack on the Russian Federation as a scenario for simulation. On the contrary, the Alliance was created precisely to provide a mechanism for deterring aggression.
Therefore, there is no logic in Putin’s words. It makes no sense to believe that the war in Ukraine will end as soon as Putin secures the entire Donbas or even the territories enshrined in the Russian Constitution. Russia is pursuing far more ambitious strategic goals. And the collapse of NATO is one of the main ones.
By 2030, the EU is set to modernize its armed forces. Thanks to this, abandoning the American security umbrella will not seem so daunting. Such are Europe’s plans.
Putin’s plans include an effort, between 2027 and 2030, to minimize the Alliance’s “value” as much as possible, provoke a split, and slow the pace of rearmament in a number of countries. In this scenario, we play the role of a force that limits Moscow’s ability to wage a special military operation to a maximum of one year. Therefore, the Europeans’ provision of weapons and funds is, in part, payment for the time they have gained.
Until March or April of next year, Moscow will still have opportunities to “force” us into capitulation. Between April and May, a small window of opportunity may open up for us (if my calculations are correct). And if the pace of the war does not begin to slow by September 2027, the next point for radical changes may not come until 2029–2030.
Viktor Shlinchak, founder and chairman of the board of the Institute of World Politics, Facebook
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