Foreign Affairs: Relying On Technology Does Not Guarantee Victory In War
- 24.10.2026, 11:41
Ukraine's experience shows that there are simple yet effective solutions.
Relying on artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles, and swarms of drones does not guarantee victory in future wars. Excessive faith in technological superiority can lead to strategic miscalculations, underestimation of the enemy, and conflicts whose consequences will prove more severe than expected. Military planners must take into account not only the capabilities of new weapons, but also political objectives, human casualties, and the enemy’s ability to adapt, writes Johns Hopkins University professor and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Mara Carlin in the journal Foreign Affairs.
The war in Ukraine shows that the most sophisticated technologies coexist with simple yet effective solutions. Russian ballistic missiles and guided bombs are striking cities, while the Ukrainian military is defending facilities from drones using ordinary fishing nets. At the same time, inexpensive drones are capable of inflicting serious damage on much more expensive military equipment.
History has repeatedly dashed hopes for the omnipotence of high technology. After the swift defeat of the Iraqi army in 1991, the U.S. faced protracted insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. Modern weapons did not help Russia achieve a quick victory after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. And in 2026, American and Israeli strikes failed to bring down the Iranian regime.
“War is not the impact of a living force upon an inanimate mass, but always a clash between two living forces,” wrote military theorist Carl von Clausewitz.
Technology also does not eliminate political disagreements among allies nor does it guarantee the protection of the civilian population. Automated targeting systems operate within rules established by humans, which means they do not, by themselves, preclude errors or excessive casualties.
Karlin suggests beginning military planning with a clear objective and an understanding of what will enable its achievement. Even the most sophisticated weapons cannot replace strategy, experience, and the ability to learn from past conflicts. Underestimating these factors is particularly dangerous against the backdrop of growing U.S.-China rivalry.
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