"Putin Will Lose The Will To Meddle Further In Ukraine"

The counteroffensive and the AFU's missiles will force the Kremlin to stop.

The AFU Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky declared a breakthrough on the front.According to him, Ukrainian forces are actively conducting counter-offensive actions, inflicting tangible losses on the enemy and holding back the Russian occupants' offensive in key areas.

Which areas are the most successful for Ukrainian troops? About the situation on the front and the impact of new weapons, Charter97.org talked to military expert, Major of Reserve of the National Guard of Ukraine Alexei Getman:

- The offensive operation of the Russians, which they themselves announced since the end of last year - the summer offensive operation - did not end in anything. The front line has not been broken through, there have been no significant advances.

- Any operation in defense consists of three conventional phases. The first phase is a withdrawal to the second and third lines of defense, inflicting maximum losses on the enemy. The second phase is to stop at some line and turn the war into a positional war. The third phase is to conduct counteroffensive actions, counterstrikes and all that is meant by active defense.

Most likely, Commander Syrsky meant that the third phase is now underway. The Russian offensive has been halted, they have not advanced significantly anywhere and have suffered significant losses. The Dobropillya and Pokrovka directions are our counter-offensive actions, which are more accurately called counter-attacks.

The rest of the front remains at parity. If we look at how much the line changes in a day, in two days, in a month, then according to the rules of military science it is called a strategically stabilized front line. Situations where the front line changes by 1-2% are not considered an advance by either side. Therefore, the halt and the Russians' inability to advance further is most likely what General Syrsky had in mind when he said that this is a turning point in the war.

- What do you think are the prospects for the AFU's actions in the coming months? Can we expect an expansion of the counter-offensive or will the main emphasis be on defense and wearing down the enemy?

- I think the latter. It is probably inexpedient to conduct counter-offensive actions in order to liberate some insignificant parts of Ukrainian territory with losses right now. Moreover, weather conditions are not conducive to offensive actions. In rainy weather, with heavy ground, it is easier to fight in defense than offensive.

Immacating the enemy and strengthening the positions where the AFU is now holding the defense, I think that this will be the general line of the armed forces of Ukraine. Although, in principle, it is not for me to make such decisions.

Obviously, the General Staff has its own plans and vision of this situation. But from a military point of view, it may not be worthwhile to conduct counter-offensive operations now. Although Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced a counteroffensive at a meeting with US President Donald Trump. He said that Ukraine is ready for it.

Where and how it will happen, thank God, no one knows about it, except for a small number of people who are planning it, if it is planned. Because without having an advantage in manpower and equipment, Ukraine can succeed by using the elements of surprise. The AFU has used this many times, and it has brought success.

So, from my point of view, an offensive operation is now possible, but I do not consider it a correct or obligatory decision. Although politically and emotionally it would be a good idea. And where and how it can happen - thank God, no one knows.

- Production of Ukrainian Flamingo missiles has already almost doubled, and they are successfully used against the occupiers' targets in Crimea. How, in your opinion, will strengthening its own missile capabilities affect the situation on the front and Ukraine's strategic capabilities?

- I think that the Russians should be afraid not of Tamahawks or Barracudas, which our partners can give us. Rather, the Russians should fear the Flamingos, Neptunes, and our other missiles that have now completed live-fire testing. We expect them to become on the stream.

There are forecasts or desire to produce at least 200 Flamingo missiles per month. This is more than the entire capability of the Russian Federation. They produce all Kalibr, Kinzhal, Iskander, Kaeskander-M missiles, it is about 150-170 maximum per month. Ukraine wants only "Flamingo" to produce 200.

We can produce about the same number of different "Neptunes", the AFU has three modifications here, "Neptune long" and "Neptune thick". Not to mention other missiles. If Ukraine can scale the production of these missiles and switch to all kinds of missiles per month, it will be the best security guarantee for the country.

And after Ukraine strikes military facilities on the territory of the Russian Federation with these missiles, I think a lot of things will change. And in the understanding of war in the Russian leadership, and in the citizens of Russia. There will simply be no desire to go further into Ukraine. Because if, for example, 10 "Flamingos" with a warhead of more than a ton arrive at some object, it will be very difficult to hide even in a bunker.

So, perhaps, this is what General Syrsky meant when he said that we can expect a break on the front line. The break is the impossibility for Russia to attack further and scaling up the production of Ukrainian weapons.

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