The Kremlin Faces A Difficult Dilemma

The Russian army is being depleted.

Human resources are one of the greatest advantages of the aggressor country Russia in the war against Ukraine, but the enemy is facing serious problems in mobilization. Local budgets charged with financing contract workers are suffering from a lack of funds, while the Russian occupation army's losses on the battlefield are growing, which is increasing public discontent and increasing the number of Russians who want to end the war as soon as possible.

The Kremlin is still hesitant to mobilize for general mobilization, realizing what this step could cost it. However, the Russian leadership is still resorting to hidden mobilization and trying to attract even the sick and prisoners to the occupation troops. However, the experience of "Prigozhin's revolt" proved that even 5 thousand criminals with weapons in their hands can put the whole Russia on its ears, so this option poses a threat to the regime.

At the same time, the logistical component of this war is extremely important for the enemy. Now the Russian army is showing signs of exhaustion. If Russia does not receive substantial external assistance in the spring, the level of its aggression will begin to subside.

This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by the executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Dmitry Zhmaylo.

- How do you assess the prospect, desire or necessity of the enemy to carry out mass mobilization, in particular, in the conditions of colossal losses of its army? Is it really possible for the Kremlin to take this step? After all, we realize that today manpower is almost its only advantage on the battlefield.

- Very doubtful. The Russians are doing a certain amount of quasi-mobilization. First of all, because we took out their oil industry and hit strategic enterprises. 17% have been taken out, and that number is rising. Plus the fall in global crude oil prices. Of course, not as much as we would like - to about 50 dollars a barrel, although we would need 30. Plus sanctions.

All of this has led to the fact that the money that local budgets have to pay for contracts - and there is a fabulous amount of the first payment, the equivalent of 40 thousand dollars - is often not available or is available in smaller amounts. Accordingly, disruptions in payments have begun. This is the first thing. Second: they have announced a regime of round-the-clock conscription, ostensibly for compulsory service, not spring and autumn conscription, but year-round conscription, under the noise of which mobilization activities can be carried out.

Third. They are removing the norms regarding the sick. We are talking about hepatitis B, hepatitis C and AIDS. They collect these patients, in particular, in two regiments, 1425 and 1427, which are now also present in Sumshchina.

They further rake up, like Prigozhin, convicts, try to get everyone out, and even with other punishments. People on probation are being brought in as well. In addition, there is already information that summonses are being sent out, they are pink in color, ostensibly to clarify data. That is, everything possible is being done.

But the announcement of general mobilization Russians will delay until the last minute, unless they are very hot. Because sociology shows that the level of those who say that it is necessary to end the war is growing. Coffins are coming to Russia, thank God, and all this is gradually leveling off. That is, Russians are ready to continue fighting, but preferably to the last drop of their neighbor's blood. Such a social contract.

This is why Russia is so nervous. When we are told that the Russians are advancing every day, it's all Russian history, Russian narrative. It makes sense that they are advancing because there are many times more of them, but it is certainly not the kind of advance that is equivalent to such losses.

I recall that as of the third week of November last year, the Russians were moving at a rate of 35-45 kilometers square per day. That rate has now dropped to 8. It makes sense that we don't stand to die when such a horde is just coming at us.

But if the Russians were sure they would break us at the front, then why would they violate NATO airspace? Why stage sabotage in Europe? If you're doing so well, why would you do that if you don't know what the reaction will be? But they're not at all sure, because they failed the summer offensive campaign. As for the fall offensive campaign, thank God, a month has already passed and the enemy has no great achievements, but there are huge losses.

Nuclear threats again, provocations in Europe again, and I think they will continue. Plus fueling all the protests - immigrant movements. In parallel, anti-immigrant Russian groups are being fueled in order to pit them against each other and provoke instability. The same Macron was plagued by "yellow vests". This is partly having an effect. The Russians are sending a message to Europe. You see, you have given weapons to Ukraine, but you have nothing to defend yourselves with. So, sacrifice Ukraine for the sake of your own security, turn off the tap of military aid.

The situation for us, of course, is complicated, but for Russians it is no less complicated. And I would not say that the war is over, because to measure only by land is very, very wrong. Here who is faster, who technically, brains will win this race.

The Russians are making Shaheds, and we are making interceptor drones. The Russians intimidate Europe with this - we say: nothing, don't worry, everything is normal, come to the exercises. And for this purpose, we even passed a controversial law on the opening of arms exports. This is primarily for European partners. Invest, weapons are much cheaper, much more effective. There is no need for AIM-120, which costs more than a million dollars, to shoot down a plywood "Gerbera", the red price of which is 10 thousand dollars.

So there is a big struggle. In the end, we're not doing well. We have a chance to stand our ground, but the Russians are all the more not doing well. Because they've gone wah-wah, and if they don't pull out in that wah-wah, they realize what catastrophic consequences can be, and very quickly. It's the collapse of the fronts and everything else.

- You said that Russia will drag out mobilization to the last. What do you think this "event C" will be, which will force the enemy to take such a step?

- The enemy will be forced to take such a step, when he has no options left. But the first wave of mobilization, those 400,000 so-called partial mobilization, "chmobiki" - caused public discontent, and the entire Russian state machine almost heckled by it. It is a huge burden on the state apparatus, on people, to carry out such a mobilization. That's why after such a thing they switched from the stick to the carrot.

The situation has changed, there are a lot of losses, a lot of coffins, and this mobilization will be even more difficult. Accordingly, under tension, it is possible to set fire from within somewhere, as Prigogine once did. We saw how 5,000 thugs set the whole of Russia on fire, and everyone started running away. What if some Russian combatant suddenly appears who will have the same ambition? So they will try to get out of it to the last and not announce such mobilization, because they are not ready for it.

There is a certain real exhaustion. They can still fight, but if they don't get external help from China in the spring, the pressure level of their aggression will gradually start to subside.

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