"This Story Will End With Lukashenko On The Scaffold"

Two mutually exclusive scenarios have emerged for the dictator.

Alexander Lukashenko is trying to maintain a balance in foreign policy and is considering two possible scenarios for his political future—ranging from a close alliance with the Kremlin to a more autonomous model. At the same time, Russia will not succeed in forcing him to go to war.

This was stated by political analyst and co-founder of the National Platform for Stability and Cohesion Oleg Saakyan during an appearance on the program “Now the Main Thing” on the television channel "Espresso".

According to him, Lukashenko found himself “caught between two fires”—between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as between Xi Jinping, the U.S., and Europe—forcing him to constantly walk a tightrope.

Saakyan noted that after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion from Belarusian territory, two mutually exclusive scenarios emerged for Lukashenko. He called the first one “a sort of Mussolini under Putin,” that is, the role of an ally of the Kremlin.

“Essentially, this is a leadership style that isn’t so rigid, one in which his own opinions might slip through here and there, but the end of this story is the scaffold,” said the political scientist.

Saakyan called the second option the “Francisco Franco scenario,” which, according to him, Lukashenko would like to implement.

“Through his actions—with some exceptions—and through his efforts and maneuvers, he secured a reprieve for himself,” he explained, referring to the Spanish dictator.

The political analyst added that, in his opinion, Putin will try to persuade Lukashenko to choose the first scenario. At the same time, he suggested that, although a meeting between them will take place, “Putin will not succeed in forcing Lukashenko to enter the war in any capacity.”

As a reminder, on June 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued an ultimatum to Alexander Lukashenko, which is set to expire on June 26–27, 2026. The Ukrainian leader outlined three demands in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The first concerned the independent shutdown and dismantling of four relay stations used to control Russian Shahed drones during attacks on Ukraine. The second was to halt fuel supplies to Russia, the volume of which, according to Zelenskyy, has increased 13-fold. The third was to halt the production of components for Russian weapons at Belarusian factories. The president emphasized that if the relay stations are not shut down, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will resolve the issue.

On June 25, it became known that the relay stations had ceased operations as early as June 22. This was indicated, in particular, by data from the Ukrainian Air Force. Meanwhile, earlier this week, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov reported that a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko had been scheduled, though it remains unclear whether it will take place or has been canceled.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]