Has Lukashenko Backed Down?

In recent days, Russian UAVs have not been deployed along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

As noted by "Flagstok", no flights of Russian attack drones have been recorded along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border over the past three days. In late spring and early summer of 2026, such flights were widespread; some drones entered Belarusian territory, and residents of border towns observed UAVs flying at low altitudes.

As of now, the most recent such incident was recorded on the morning of Sunday, June 21, when the Ukrainian Air Force reported UAV activity in the northwestern part of the Chernihiv region along the border with Belarus, heading toward Slavutych.

Interestingly, about three hours later, according to the “Rynda Monitors” channel, one of the Russian drones was found on Belarusian territory. Initial reports indicated that it was moving near Turov in the Gomel region, and later it was located near David-Gorodok in the Brest region.

It was not specified whether it flew back into Ukrainian territory. It is not known for certain whether this was the same UAV that had previously been moving along the border in the Gomel region.

Meanwhile, Russian drones continued to attack the Chernihiv region in the days that followed, but they were directed along different routes that did not pass through the Ukrainian-Belarusian border area. It should be noted that there were no large-scale air attacks by Russia during this period, so the picture is not yet complete and it is too early to draw conclusions.

The monitoring channel eRadar confirmed that Russian drones have not yet flown along the border this week, attributing this to the possible cessation of the use of relay stations on Belarusian territory, which Russia uses to coordinate its attacks. As a reminder, Ukraine had previously announced the destruction of a UAV guidance network originating from Belarus.

Currently, the shutdown of the repeaters has become the main condition of the ultimatum issued by Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Alexander Lukashenko. The ultimatum expires on Friday.

Prior to this, monitors and the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been tracking constant movements of groups of Russian UAVs along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. They were launched from the Bryansk region and headed west.

This tactic is aimed at complicating the work of Ukraine’s air defense and using Belarusian airspace as cover. The UAVs fly in a column (chain) parallel to the border to avoid early detection and penetrate deep into the western or central regions of Ukraine.

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