"Putin Has Three Scenarios On The Table."

The expert said how long Russia is going to fight.

What could be Russia's next steps in the war

Dictator Putin is now considering several scenarios on what to do next with the war in Ukraine. The situation could develop in very different ways.

The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council Andrey Kovalenko told "24 Kanal" that Putin actually has 3 scenarios on the table right now. However, these are only the ones that are known about. In fact, there may be more.

Does Russia intend to end the war against Ukraine?"

Kovalenko said that the first basic scenario is the continuation of the war until at least 2028. There they are betting on the current spring-summer offensive campaign. Also, the enemy may even go for partial mobilization to be able to conduct active hostilities for another 2 years.

The second scenario - "drift" to a ceasefire and freezing the war. For this purpose, Russia is forming a narrative according to which dictator Putin was ill-informed about the war in Ukraine and the situation has come to a standstill because of the actions of the generals.

"A representative of the presidential administration, Sergei Kiriyenko, is in charge of all this "infrastructure." The formation of various narratives comes under the vision of Kirienko and the people below him. In this case, we are talking about the formation of a narrative according to which not Putin is to blame for the freezing of the war, but the generals," Kovalenko said.

The third scenario is the continuation of the war against Ukraine with a parallel transition to hybrid warfare with NATO closer to 2028. This could be aggressive actions against the Baltic states. Against this background, Russia is working on a bill that allows the use of the army in other countries to "protect Russian citizens."

In the case of the Baltic States, the Kremlin may go for drone attacks and the involvement of small 20-man DRGs that will infiltrate the territories of these states for certain operations.

"These are the three scenarios that exist. Different pools formulate public opinions under these. However, there are people in Russia who do not like Kirienko. They hint that Kirienko loses everything and everywhere, recalling Orban's defeat in Hungary, unsuccessful for Russia elections in Moldova and Romania. At the same time, they are preparing a platform for every scenario Putin chooses regarding the war," Kovalenko said.

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