"Lukashenko Was Warned"

An expert commented on a possible Ukrainian Armed Forces strike on transmission towers in Belarus.

In southern Belarus, three communication towers that could have been used to control Russian drones have stopped working.

Could these facilities have been taken out by strikes from the Ukrainian Armed Forces? The website Charter97.org asked Ukrainian military and political analyst Alexandra Kovalenko of the “Information Resistance” group Alexander Kovalenko:

— If these facilities are located 10–20 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, that is precisely within the strike range of even a standard FPV drone. I’m not even talking about fiber-optic drones or “middle strike” drones like the Hornet and RAM-2X.
So far, there is no information confirming that it was specifically a strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But when several towers go offline simultaneously, it looks suspicious, to say the least. Either there was a cascading failure in the system itself, or an external intervention took place. Therefore, we cannot rule it out.

All the more so because this issue has been raised and discussed more than once. Relay towers on Belarusian territory are used by Russian kamikaze drones to improve communication quality while flying along the Belarusian border and into the western regions of Ukraine.

Again, there is no official confirmation, and I have not yet seen any verification of their status. But if this is indeed the case, then Ukraine had warned: if Lukashenko does not shut down these towers and continues to allow them to be used to support Russian drones, we will shut them down ourselves. I don’t think anyone will issue a second warning. One should be enough.

— If the towers were indeed attacked, what message does this send to the Lukashenko regime? Does this mean that facilities in Belarus used by the Russian military are now legitimate targets for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

— These facilities have always been legitimate targets for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Solely out of respect for the sovereign borders of a neighboring state, we did not carry out strikes on Belarusian territory either in 2022 or afterward.

But if assistance is provided from Belarusian territory in carrying out terrorist attacks against the civilian population, we have every moral and legal right to destroy all resources and equipment involved in this. So yes, absolutely.

— What other targets on Belarusian territory could be targeted if Lukashenko continues to help Putin’s army attack Ukraine?

— Here, we’re talking more about active actions. That is precisely the key factor. What do I mean? A relay station is already an active action in support of the occupier.
There are Russian air defense units on Belarusian territory. But they aren’t striking Ukrainian territory, so the Ukrainian Armed Forces aren’t targeting them. There are camps housing fighters from the Wagner Group private military company. They are not conducting sabotage operations on Ukrainian territory, so these camps and their deployment sites are not being targeted.

If, for example, a Russian “Iskander-M” were to appear on Belarusian territory and begin launching ballistic missiles at Ukraine, we would have every right to strike the launch site from which these missiles are being fired, as well as to search for the storage sites and locations of these “Iskanders.” That said, the Belarusian army also has “Iskanders” in its arsenal, so it’s important not to confuse one with the other. Although, even if they do get mixed up, so what? If there are aggressive and active actions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will, of course, put a stop to them. But as long as the Wagner Group or other Russian units are sitting tight and not making a move—and are mainly performing support functions—we’re not going to touch them.

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