Oleh Bilokolos: Belarusian Siloviki Wake Up In Cold Sweat

They will have to face the fighters of the Kalinouski regiment.

How will Ukraine build its relations with Belarus? Why are the Belarusian siloviki afraid of the fighters of the Kalinouski regiment? Why is Kyiv's foreign policy towards the Iranian and Belarusian regimes so different?

Oleh Bilokolos, an expert on foreign and security policy of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation, ex-adviser of the Embassy of Ukraine in Canada and Kenya, answered these and other questions for the website Charter97.org.

— Putin announced his withdrawal from the "grain deal", but after negotiations with Erdogan, he drastically changed his position. He was also afraid to help the CSTO member Armenia during the intensification of the conflict with Azerbaijan, which was supported by Turkey. Why is Putin afraid to go into conflict with Erdogan?

— Here we need to look at a wide range of relations between Russia and Turkey as a whole. There is an economic aspect, the construction of a nuclear power plant, Turkey's policy in the region is also important, it plays a critical role for Russia, including in terms of exports of agricultural products, the chemical industry and other things. Therefore, this is not a neighbor that the Putin regime would like to anger in the face of growing isolation from the West. Under these conditions, it is also not profitable for the Kremlin to go into confrontation with Turkey. Putin is afraid to bring down almost everything and be left alone with China and Iran (let's not exaggerate the role of Zimbabwe or Venezuela here). That is, Turkey is a serious neighbor, with which a fairly large volume of various ties is maintained. Putin is not in a position to be audacious right now.

— Since the beginning of the full-scale war, China and India have been building up economic relations with Russia. But at the recent SCO summit, the leaders of these countries spoke out against the war that Putin started. Can China and India force Putin to end the war?

— I have not heard, to be honest, them openly speaking out against the war. China takes a position of neutrality with more sympathy for Russia. India's statement that there is no need to use nuclear weapons is also far from overt anti-war rhetoric. These countries, taking advantage of the moment, buy Russian raw materials at a big discount. In this case, they may even be interested in such a situation continuing for some time.

— Iran has recently been actively helping Russia by supplying weapons. At the same time, Lukashenka provided the territory of Belarus for the Russian army to attack Ukraine. At the same time, Kyiv's foreign policy regarding the Iranian and Belarusian regimes differs significantly. Why is it so?

— Now we are in the process of making decisions. I am sure that soon we will see some changes in the direction of both Minsk and Tehran. They took the side of our enemy, and, accordingly, they will also be evaluated. Public opinion is clearly opposed to both of these regimes. At the same time, despite the war, we maintain democracy, the country's leadership listens to the mood of the public. Therefore, soon we will see some changes in this regard.

— The Ukrainian deputies met with the Kalinouski regiment and declared that they were ready to speak with its fighters as legitimate representatives of the Belarusian people. What is the main message of this event? How will Ukraine build its relations with Belarus?

— As a Ukrainian, I can only welcome such steps. From an official point of view, Lukashenka has long been considered a self-proclaimed, illegitimate representative of Belarusians. But there are people, our neighbors, who, with weapons in their hands, not sparing their lives, help us to repel Russia's aggression. And this is an essential point that motivated representatives of our government to take such a step. Again, I applaud this. I hope others will follow this step, perhaps with some more formalization in terms of certain international procedures. The first steps have already been taken, and I hope others will follow.

— The Kalinouski regiment is discussed by the top Belarusian security officials and Lukashenka himself. Why are they so afraid of it?

— They bravely beat unarmed demonstrators, but as people who are afraid of a rebuff, they see these fighters as a threat. They are sincerely scared, realizing that it will not be harmless girls in white coats with umbrellas who will deal with them, but serious people who have gone through the crucible of war. Therefore, the Belarusian siloviki wake up in a cold sweat, afraid of a possible meeting with them.