27 May 2024, Monday, 13:15
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Political Analyst: Putin Has Plan Of Attack On Baltic Nations On His Table

Political Analyst: Putin Has Plan Of Attack On Baltic Nations On His Table
Petro Oleshchuk

Lukashenka will be strongly involved.

Lukashenka urged Belarusians to prepare for war. Before that, he appeared on the border with Lithuania in military uniform and talked about the Suwalki corridor.

Should his words be taken seriously? Could it be Russian psychological warfare efforts? Charter97.org addressed this question to Petro Oleshchuk, a Ukrainian political scientist and professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv:

— One does not interfere with the other. It is obvious that it’s a stage of Russian psychological warfare efforts designed primarily to raise rates again. Lukashenka is a very applicable tool for such an increase in tensions because he seems to be a sovereign ruler, on the other hand, he is completely dependent on the Russian Federation.

Putin can always broadcast a variety of threats through him. If something goes wrong, he can always say that this is Lukashenka's personal initiative, and they [Russia - Ed.] have nothing to do with it.

This is a rather old scheme, but if the Russian leadership really decides to launch any military operation against NATO member states, I am 90% sure that it will start from the territory of Belarus and with the direct participation of Lukashenka. To use Lukashenka as a proxy in the conduct of such a war, to immediately try to make the war limited, so that it does not carry increased threats to Putin, but on the other hand, it allows to carry out certain tasks.

— What are the possible tasks?

— Breaking through the Suwalki corridor to the Kaliningrad region. Again, this is not the final task. I have been saying for a long time that it is necessary to consider the scenario of Russia's attack on NATO member states not to capture but to show the weakness of the Alliance. That there will not be a quick adequate reaction, a quick reaction.

I am sure that Russia considers such a scenario. The Russian leadership considers this since they believe that NATO is showing weakness, and their own forces (in their opinion) are growing. I think Putin has a plan for such an attack on his table, and Lukashenka will be strongly involved.

— What will be NATO's reaction to such an attack?

— You see, no one knows, since NATO does not formulate this answer in any specific way. Moreover, they avoid answering these questions directly.

I’d like to repeat, no one knows what will happen if such a threat appears. Especially if Donald Trump becomes President of the United States. Will he react or not? He once said that it is not a fact that he will protect NATO allies. In general, the response from NATO may be different. Not necessarily a military one.

The task of such operations most likely consists of simply testing the scale of the reaction. We already see, for example, that Russian missiles and drones get into the territory of NATO member states. The last drone flew deep into Romania for 20 km. I think it will continue.

You know, I do not expect that one day the Russian horde will go to the territory of Lithuania. Everything will be simpler: at first, rockets will "accidentally" start flying, then they will start flying farther and farther. Then they will try to send sabotage-reconnaissance groups, and they will be followed by incomprehensible breakthroughs of incomprehensible migrants, terrorist attacks and cyberattacks.

When they carry out all this, and there is no serious reaction from NATO, it will be possible to try larger, but limited military actions.

I do not doubt that there are such plans. It is difficult to say when they will be implemented. I don't think in decades but in the fairly foreseeable future.

In the meantime, Lukashenka is threatening, but we remember for a long there was information about the preparation for the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the information space. Then it was allegedly cancelled and postponed. Ultimately, it all happened. Now all this should not be underestimated. They are preparing the information space.

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