Piotr Oleshchuk: Lukashenko May Be Declared A Disloyal Conspirator

The dictator is afraid Putin will become paranoid.

The crisis on the border of Belarus and Lithuania continues. Every day, weather probes fly into Lithuanian territory, the border is closed, and Lukashenko has taken hostage hundreds of trucks that have not had time to leave the country. Lithuania is trying to pressure Lukashenko through the U.S.

What is behind this situation: a hybrid war between Putin and Lukashenko against Lithuania? Or perhaps Minsk is trying to raise the stakes in negotiations with the U.S.?

About this, Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian political scientist, professor of Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University Peter Oleshchuk:

I have such suspicions that Lukashenko is playing a complicated game. He is trying to sit on several chairs at the same time. On the one hand, he is very much interested in resetting relations with the United States, the prospect that it will somehow improve relations with Europe. It is favorable for him to have the sanctions at least partially lifted.

Because Belarus is not Russia, there is no such power reserve in the form of an oil cushion. Therefore, Lukashenko is very much interested. But he is afraid of Putin. He is afraid that the Kremlin boss will consider him disloyal, a conspirator. And in general, given the level of Putin's paranoia, it is not so difficult to awaken it.

I think that Lukashenko is simultaneously trying to flirt with the United States, and at the same time to show Putin that he is loyal, that everything is stable, that he is with Russia to the end. He will not conduct any separate negotiations. And if he does, it is only on some local issues that do not solve anything globally. That is why the terror against Lithuania is a demonstration of loyalty on Lukashenko's part.

Perhaps it is some kind of coordinated plan with Russia. It has recently moved intensively to various provocations against the countries of the European Union and NATO. I think it also fits into the general escalation strategy that Putin has started.

It includes statements about nuclear weapons tests that they are allegedly planning to conduct, numerous provocations against European countries, and the same "shaheds" that are flying into Poland. That is, this is a common part of Russia's strategy of terrorizing the EU and NATO countries in order to intimidate them into giving up their support for Ukraine.

It is obvious that Lukashenko has an important role in this scheme, because Belarus borders a number of European countries. Belarus is quite convenient for taking provocative actions against these countries. Lukashenko, apparently, realizes that he is being used to cover himself in case of any risk.

The scheme is quite simple: Russia takes some actions against the European Union and NATO, but they are carried out from the territory of Belarus and on its behalf. Obviously, the extremely cowardly Putin is still afraid that there will be a real response.

And if there is a response, let it be to Lukashenko. And Lukashenko probably realizes this too, so he is intensifying relations with the United States to convince them that he is not plotting anything.

Lukashenko is trying to somehow hold on in this situation, fearing both Putin and the West, trying to somehow reset relations, to lift sanctions, but at the same time to preserve relations with Russia. I don't know how long he will be able to hold out in this situation, because Putin will still put the question to him: are you with me or not? If you are with me, then let's start a war, for example, against Lithuania and so on.

This option is absolutely not excluded. Putin may demand, if not to start a war directly, then to start a series of large-scale provocations against Lithuania. Probably, Lukashenko is thus postponing the moment when it will be necessary to start something more large-scale.

In any case, I have no doubt that Putin has very serious plans for Lukashenko, and he will have to undertake some large-scale provocations against Europe, because Putin, as it seems to me, has chosen the scenario of the so-called Caribbean crisis as a basic one.

That is, raising the stakes to the maximum in order to propose a settlement, but through some mutual concessions. Naturally, these concessions will imply, from Putin's point of view, that Ukraine must concede to him.

- On a practical daily basis, unknown drones appear over European cities. Should we expect an escalation? What else can the Kremlin come up with?"

- So far, they are using all this quite effectively. Russia has found another policy tool. That is, the issue of confiscating Russian assets is being discussed in Belgium - unknown drones appear there. When Germany discusses any issues related to support of Ukraine, drones appear there. UAVs appear on the territory of countries that, for example, support Ukraine more seriously. Will there be an expansion? There will be, I have no doubt about it, we talk about it all the time.

Long before the first drones appeared in Poland, I said that they would appear there. I have absolutely no doubt that Putin will develop this topic. There appeared today very such interesting news, which must be interpreted correctly.

The Russian FSB said that allegedly Ukraine wanted to conduct an operation, to bribe Russian pilots for 3 million dollars to allegedly direct a Russian MiG-31 aircraft, the carrier of the Kinzhals, into Romanian airspace to be shot down, and that this was some kind of military provocation. I personally have no doubt that no one in Ukraine was planning anything of the sort.

If Ukraine was really trying to do something with those very MiG pilots, it clearly would not have tried to use up the resource so stupidly. It would have taken this MiG for itself and then, perhaps, bargained for it, as it had already done with the helicopter.

I think everyone remembers this story, when the Russian pilot transported the helicopter to Ukraine. For Ukraine, this MiG would have been a very valuable prize. It could, for example, be studied, sold to the United States in exchange for something valuable for Ukraine.

In general, it is a very valuable resource. No one would spend it in this way. But how should this statement of the FSB be interpreted correctly? It should be interpreted in the following way.

Russia is preparing provocations with Russian airplanes hitting NATO airspace, possibly shelling something on the territory of the Alliance. They are already legendizing this situation for the future, that if, for example, they conduct such a provocation, and this plane is shot down there, they can say that these are all pilots recruited by Ukraine in order to carry out the provocation. I emphasize, they are obviously planning to bombard something on NATO territory using Russian planes.

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