Natallia Radzina: Belarusians Will Greet Kalinouski Regiment And NATO Troops

Lukashenka and Putin will meet in The Hague.

How to force Russia to stop the war? Will Putin and Lukashenka survive before The Hague? Could Prigozhin capture Moscow? What is the most realistic scenario for the liberation of Belarus?

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website, spoke about this and other issues in an interview on the Studio X-97 show. Host: Yevhen Klimakin.

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– Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org. Natallia, come on, as they say, right off the boat. Let's start our conversation with the hottest topics. The Wagnerites in Belarus and Prigozhin. Why does Lukashenka need them there?

– I thought that Lukashenka would be smart enough not to allow the Wagner PMC into Belarus. That is, everything is limited only to granting the Wagner PMC some competence, which was discussed during Lukashenka’s negotiations with Prigozhin on the day of the take-over attempt in Russia. I believe that on June 24, 2023, there was a take-over attempt for sure. However, we see they are building field camps for the Wagner PMC in Belarus. One of these camps is in the Asipovichy district of the Mahiliou region, the settlement of Tsel. There are available pictures of these tents, wooden flooring, made for the fighters of the Wagner PMC.

There will be at least three of these camps on the territory of Belarus, and this creates a serious threat, of course, not only for the people of our country, but also for the Lukashenka regime. That is why I thought that he was aware of these threats and would still try to resist Putin's plans to deploy the PMC in Belarus. But we see that today Lukashenka has no subjectivity, and this will lead to destabilization both in the situation inside the country and destabilization of the regime too.

Why did I think that he would be brainy enough not to place them on the territory of Belarus? We see that his position makes it really impossible to resist Putin today and he accepts these bandits in the country. I am convinced, they will eventually go against him.

– Do you think that he was forced to allow the Wagnerites into Belarus?

– Most likely, yes, or he has completely gone crazy with fear, because, as some experts suggest that he is afraid of the offensive of the Belarusian volunteers from Ukraine and does not trust his own army, because there are doubts that the army will go against the Belarusian volunteers, but rather go over to their side. However, he is still counting on the Wagner PMC. But this is such a time-delay bomb, because Lukashenka himself can become the main victim in this situation.

– How can the Belarusian people defend themselves in this situation? What to do?

– What to do? The situation is very difficult. So what should residents of the occupied Crimea do? What should people in the occupied Donbas do? The situation is extremely difficult for people in Belarus, because, of course, everyone today is under the yoke of such horrible repressions, which have been carried out daily for the past three years. But I am convinced that the constant deterioration of the situation in Belarus will eventually lead to social resistance. Because people are now beginning to understand that no one will protect them except themselves. Yes, many hope for the Belarusian volunteers today, those who are fighting in Ukraine. But the more time passes, the more people become confident that they need to protect themselves. And therefore it is difficult to predict what scenarios will be. However, I do not rule out that there may be some kind of social explosion due to such a deterioration in the situation within the country.

– Will Prigozhin be killed? What do you think?

– It’s hard to say. He is hiding now. His location is still unknown. Apparently, he is not in Belarus, because he understands that Lukashenka's guarantees are worth nothing in this situation. Of course, the dictator cannot give any guarantees to Prigozhin. Putin also has repeatedly called him a traitor. Probably, further attempts will be made to put pressure on Prigozhin and somehow inactivate his PMC. Because we see that his Patriot media group has been closed in Russia and that the Russian MoD has terminated the contract with his Concord catering company. We see that not all of the PMC’s troops will be moved, thank God, to the territory of Belarus, some, apparently, will leave for Africa, Syria, and some will remain.

– By the way, there were detentions of Wagner leaders in Syria.

– This information was later refuted. Therefore, we do not know exactly what happened there, but we see that recruitment to PMCs on the territory of Russia is already ending. Those of them who remain to fight in Ukraine will apparently sign contracts, roughly speaking, with the Russian Ministry of Defence.

Therefore, there are a lot of questions, it is difficult to predict anything now. One of these questions: “And who will finance the Wagner PMC on the territory of Belarus?” Because, as it turned out, a year ago, Putin cynically lied when he said that Wagner was not funded through the Russian budget. Today, both he and his Minister of Defense Shoigu are declaring that billions of dollars are being spent on the Wagner PMC from the budget.

Thus, if they leave the jurisdiction of Russia and appear on the territory of Belarus, who will finance, who will feed these thousands of the Wagnerites in Belarus?

– And they love money.

– Sure, they love money very much ...

– I recently received an email from a person from Wagner PMC. This mail is now available online for everyone. There is an offer to give interviews for money. So they are already looking for new ways to make money. Because, apparently, their sources of income are over. So they began to send proposals to foreign countries and ready to give interviews for fees, that is for money..

– In any case, I want to say that everything that is happening now, it’s happening for the best. Because we are witnessing, in fact, the collapse of Russia.

Prigozhin is such a first sign or “black swan” for the Putin regime. It became clear how contradictory the moods are now not only among the ordinary citizens but also among the elites. Apparently, Prigozhin was counting on the support of the Russian military elites, because the events with the same commander of the Aerospace Forces, Surovikin, confirms that Prigozhin was counting on his support on the day of the coup.

It seems that Surovikin is really really under arrest. He does not appear anywhere, which is obviously why Prigozhin had to turn back and not complete his work. Although he had every chance to reach Moscow.

We saw that he is very favourable among the military and among the security forces. The police refused to confront Wagner PMC and the people supported him, meeting with flowers, and applause. Putin fled Moscow then, he left the capital. Prigozhin could well seize power. But, apparently, he stopped, because the people he relied on did not support him. Surovikin was probably one of these people. But this whole situation has shown how weak and fragile the Russian regime is. In fact, we are exaggerating its strength, we are exaggerating its power. I think that later, if not Prigozhin, then other ambitious military leaders will appear who want to take power in their own hands.

– Do Putin’s people consider him to be a downed pilot?

– Prigozhin, in fact, nullified Putin. Look at the hysterical reaction. First, he ran away, then he made an extremely nervous, ragged appeal to the people, then he staged some kind of mini-parade in the Kremlin. It was clear that Putin was hardly oppressed at the meeting with the security forces.

– What happened to the thoroughly created alpha male image?

– I don’t know, in my opinion, his doubles were alpha males there, if there were, then rather. Then this Dagestan, where, despite the covid restrictions, under strict quarantine, which Putin adhered to for several years, he began to hug the local population. Now, they say, there will be active trips to the regions by Putin again. But he is trying to pretend that he is holding back the situation, that he allegedly enjoys some kind of support from the population. But it is obvious to everyone that the king is naked, it is obvious to everyone that this is not so. And the more Putin frantically tries to prove the opposite to us, the worse he gets.

– You visited Kyiv recently. What are your impressions? Whom did you meet?

– First of all, in addition to political meetings in the Office of the President, I met with the Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine, with deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, with adviser to the Office of Volodymyr Zelensky Mykhailo Podalyak, I met with Belarusian volunteer associations. It was important to meet with the Belarusians who are fighting for Ukraine. This is the regiment named after Kastus Kalinouski, the Terror Battalion, now there is a Belarusian unit in the ranks of the Second International Legion. There are more and more Belarusian units. I just wanted to talk to these guys about their plans, about what kind of support they need. And these were the main meetings, for the sake of which I went to Kyiv.

– What do official Kyiv, the Office of President Zelensky, say about the situation in Belarus, are they ready to help in any way or do they expect support from the opposition?

– I cannot reveal the essence of all the conversations that took place at the Office of the President of Ukraine. But there is an understanding that Belarus is occupied now by both the pro-Kremlin regime of Lukashenka and Russian troops, who are actually on the territory of the country, and their number is constantly increasing.

Luckily they make a distinction between the regime and the people. There is an understanding that the people do not support this criminal regime, most of them oppose this war and are subjected to monstrous repressions today. Therefore, different scenarios are being discussed on how to change the situation in Belarus. By the way, General Waldemar Skrzypczak, the former Deputy Minister of Defence of Poland, announced one of the most realistic scenarios. He said that Belarusian volunteers could enter the territory of Belarus and NATO troops could enter too, and the Belarusian people would support them all. And it is true.

– Since 2023, Poland has recorded 12,000 attempts to illegally cross the border from Belarus. We know that this is a large-scale operation by the Belarusian regime. What else to expect in this regard? Do you think they will continue to provoke and destabilize the situation?

– Definitely, threats from the territory of Belarus will always come as long as Belarus is ruled by the pro-Kremlin Lukashenka regime. Ukraine and NATO member states clearly understood this. Poland understands this very well, the migration war has been going on for two years now, the Polish border is constantly under attack, they recently even fired on Polish border guards there. The situation is extremely tense. The border between Poland and Belarus is being strengthened as we know today. The situation will worsen without serious measures. Because the Wagner PMC, which will now be deployed on the territory of the country, nuclear missiles that are about to be deployed - all this creates more and more terrible threats.

– Natasha, I would like to talk with you more about nuclear weapons. What are the risks that they will use it in Belarus?

— First, we are to get evidence of nuclear weapons deployment in Belarus. It is expected that it should arrive in the country just this month, in July. Lukashenka said that it is already there. We know that the old Soviet storage facilities were being prepared for storage of these nuclear missiles. The Brest and Homiel regions were announced to be possible locations. It is near the border with Ukraine. I think that these missiles will certainly be deployed on the territory of Belarus. Launching the nukes remains in question. In any case, they will be used for nuclear blackmail of both Ukraine and Western countries, this is quite obvious. Who will control them? Russia says they will be under their sole control. Lukashenka has repeatedly said that he will also take part in the use of these weapons. Let's see what happens. Now the deployment of the Wagner PMC on the territory of Belarus creates an additional threat. For example, the American historian Yuri Felshtinsky believes that the Wagner PMC can seize these nuclear missiles on the territory of the country with the tacit consent of Putin and Lukashenka, and then use them both against Ukraine and against Western countries. And allegedly in this situation, Putin and Lukashenko can say: “Well, sorry, we didn’t know. It was the bandits who seized the rockets and fired."

Of course, it seems that this is some kind of very conspiracy theory, but on the other hand, who could have guessed a year ago that these nuclear missiles would be deployed on the territory of Belarus, who could have guessed a year and a half ago that Russian troops would enter Ukraine from the territory of Belarus? Now is the time for the implementation of the craziest scenarios.

– And also, given the fact that Lukashenka is in agony.

– They are both in agony: both Putin and Lukashenka. Therefore, of course, they can take the most horrible steps, and the world should be clearly aware of this. Because if they are not stopped now, then really very different scenarios are possible. And in this situation, of course, a tough reaction is needed from both the European Union and the United States, and from NATO as a whole. It is no longer possible to just say words of concern about what is happening - tough measures must be taken.

– As for NATO. The summit will soon take place in Vilnius. What are the expectations?

– It is difficult to say about the expectations. Because. First of all, Ukraine has great expectations from this NATO summit. We’ll see. But as for Belarus, in addition to the sanctions that I spoke about, a clearer NATO action plan is also needed in the event that nuclear missiles and the Wagner PMC are deployed on the territory of Belarus.

If this is not done, there will be serious threats to the entire region. In fact, Belarus is turning into a kind of centre for international terrorism and nuclear blackmail. Therefore, it is necessary, in addition to strengthening the sanctions, to generally block the transit of goods through the territory of Belarus to stop any trade with this regime. Because otherwise, we won't be able to sober up these two dictators who today are ready to commit the most horrible crimes. And there is a strong possibility as a last resort (many diplomats started talking about it) to send NATO peacekeeping troops under the UN mandate to Belarus.

– Is it really possible?

– We are to struggle for it, you know. For example, a historic event recently took place: the International Labor Organization applied Article 33 of the ILO Convention, which imposes a trade embargo on Belarus, against Belarus. It is up to national governments now. They are to take it seriously and apply this Article 33. The Belarusian opposition has been striving for this since 2003, and finally, 20 years later, it happened. Therefore, if we are striving, if we are talking about the need to send NATO peacekeeping troops to Belarus, then this will eventually happen.

– After the start of еру full-scale invasion, we get more and more information about explosions and fires both in Russia and in the territories occupied by Russia. The Russians also call it "bangs". It is clear that the Ukrainian intelligence and special services do not take the responsibility, but everyone understands what is going on. In your opinion, should the Ukrainian special services actively perform similar operations on the territory of Belarus in places where camps will be located, for example?

– Sure, it is definitely worth it. When there were massive missile attacks on Ukrainian cities from the territory of Belarus, we said bluntly: "Ukraine has the right to strike back at military facilities in Belarus." For some reason, this did not happen, and now, oddly enough, even those actions that we see in Russia do not take place. Although there is an example of the Belgorod region, and this is what he showed. As soon as the Russian Volunteer Corps entered the Belgorod region, nuclear warheads were withdrawn from there. This is a direct answer to the question about the threats with nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, and what can be done in this regard.

– Shall the Kalinovites enter?

– You need to understand that the Kalinovites are part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Of course, the Belarusian volunteers, many of whom I met during my recent visit to Kyiv, are ready to go to Belarus, and they came to Ukraine to fight with the hope that Belarus will be the next. Because people go there not only to help Ukraine, but to subsequently help their own country. Of course, the decision on any actions on the territory of Belarus is up to the leadership of Ukraine.

– What will determine the course of the war in the future?

– Solidarity, of course, support from the West. It is very important. I don't doubt the courage of Ukrainians who will fight for their country to the last soldier, to the last bullet. But, of course, Ukraine needs comprehensive support from the West today. This support should by no means weaken, there should not be that fatigue that European politicians have been complaining about lately. The Ukrainians themselves speak about it. The war must be ended with the unconditional victory of Ukraine.

– What will determine the development of the situation in Belarus in the near future?

– The development of the situation in Belarus also depends, of course, on the situation in Ukraine. This is certainly so. And we have a common enemy - the Putin regime and Russia. And, of course, the more blows are inflicted on the Putin regime, the more chaos in Russia created, the weaker the Putin regime, the more chances the Belarusians have to achieve freedom for their country.

– How to force Russia to stop the war in the near future.? Because there are scenarios providing an endless story for this.

– Supplies of all necessary weapons: fighter jets, heavy armoured vehicles, and tanks to Ukraine. Well, and increasing pressure of sanctions on Russia.

– The International Centre for the Prosecution of Russia's Crime of Aggression Against Ukraine was recently created in The Hague. Many experts say that this is such a base in order to launch a procedure, a tribunal where war criminals will be tried. Do you think that Lukashenka should sit in the dock as well as the citizens of the Russian Federation responsible for all this?

– Undoubtedly. He is the same aggressor as Putin in this war. Moreover, Lukashenka must answer for the crimes he committed against the Belarusian people, and there are a lot of these crimes. In addition, he must answer for Bucha and Irpen, and for Borodianka. Because Russian troops entered Ukraine and committed these monstrous crimes from the territory of Belarus and with his permission.

– What do you think, Putin himself will live to see The Hague or will he be killed somewhere earlier?

– I would like him to survive till the tribunal. I would like him to end up on trial and, of course, I would like the Russian people to comprehend those monstrous crimes that the Russians are commiting in Ukraine today. What happened after the Second World War, when so many people were exterminated and when six million Jewish people were killed? After all, everyone, primarily Germany, was horrified by what happened. And the whole West has been rethinking for years, for decades what happened. But Russia did not comprehend at all those monstrous repressions that were committed by the Soviet leaders, primarily Stalin, over the decades, when about a hundred million people died. They didn't rethink it. That’s why today's war in Ukraine became possible.

– That is why Stalin was resurrected.

– Yes, in fact, Stalin is an idol for them, for both Putin and Lukashenka.

– I would like to end our show with your opinion about the most realistic forecasts regarding our future, the war and the future developments in Belarus.

– Look, we can analyze and predict, but no one knows what can happen not only tomorrow but in a minute, in 15 minutes, in an hour. Who could predict that there would be a Prigozhin’s rebellion or a take-over on June 24? Some experts made assumptions, but still, few people imagined such a scenario.

Therefore, at any moment this “black swan” can fly again and they will fly in flocks and the whole situation will change. The only thing that can be predicted is the trend. And the trend is that Russia will certainly lose in this war. And Ukraine and Belarus will be free.

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