Political Scientist: Tens Of Thousands Of Belarusians Сan Make ‘Excursion’ To Minsk

Lukashenka is playing along with the Russian special services in vain.

Prominent Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the Director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, commented to Charter97.org on the latest anti-Polish statements by Putin and Lukashenka:

– Lukashenka plays along with Putin and the Russian special services. There is no doubt that his statement about the “excursion” of the Wagnerites to Rzeszów and Warsaw is the IPSO [information-psychological special operation - Ed.].

First, it was announced at such a high level without a formal external reason. Lukashenka used his traditional speech style - an unfulfilled stand-up comedian. I will say that he is a very convenient object for various parodies.

So far, this is more of a horror story, a clear desire to scare not so much Poland but Western European elites, saying that the war could drag on, and most importantly, Russia could attack NATO countries.

NATO, on the other hand, follows a political course of avoiding a direct military clash with Russia. The Russian Federation is aware of this, so they want to “scare”, but in the form of a hybrid war.

They say that not Russia but the Wagnerites are going to attack. What will you do then?

Secondly, Russian Telegram channels are actively discussing the version that Putin may allegedly try to use military provocations against Poland as one of the topics for his presidential campaign.

They failed with a small victorious war against Ukraine, so they want to scare Poland. This will be such a factor of a military conflict threat regarding the NATO member states. Even if not directly then indirectly, as a hybrid war, but supposedly this could be, I emphasize, one of the topics of the election campaign.

I'm personally still skeptical about this. Elections are not coming soon (only in March 2024). And as Putin's unsuccessful war against Ukraine showed, there are no guarantees of a quick victory. Just a provocation will not have much political effect.

– What are they ready to do?

– Border provocations with the Wagnerites are possible. Both on the border with Ukraine and on the border with Poland, Lithuania and even Latvia.

I’d like to say that the Wagnerites in their current numbers, without heavy weapons, are suitable only for border provocations: border battles, some kind of sorties to create an effect of instability, the effect of hostilities.

“We’ve penetrated, made some noise, published footage and left.” This is, let's say, a copy of what Russian volunteers did in the Belgorod region. Just in case, you need to prepare for such provocations.

By the way, there are not enough Wagner troops in Belarus to launch a large-scale military operation. The data is different, but the maximum number of troops there could be compared to the Rostov and Moscow raid numbers. Not more than eight thousand.

Judging by the camp near Asipovichy, it is designed for approximately this number. They don't have heavy war machinery. They brought transport with them, moreover, we are talking about the UAZs cars and the like. They have only light armored vehicles in terms of real military vehicles.

– The Poles are preparing, strengthening the border. What awaits the Wagnerites in case of provocations?

– The Poles will react harshly, and they will do the right thing. Since Lukashenka, together with Putin, began to frighten the West, then I think that Warsaw, Berlin and Brussels (NATO headquarters) should sternly warn the Kremlin and Lukashenka too. But here the decisive role belongs to the Kremlin. You need to warn them that the answer will be very tough.

In the event of an attack from the territory of Belarus, a blow could be delivered to the places of deployment of the Wagnerites, for example, on the territory of the country.

Ukraine has already issued such warnings. There should also be from Poland, the leadership of NATO and some major European countries. The US should also warn that this adventure will have very serious consequences.

At the same time, Lukashenka needs to be reminded that both in Ukraine and Poland there are tens of thousands of Belarusians who can also make an “excursion” to Minsk. Voentorg for such purposes will always be open.

A hybrid war can be waged not only by Putin and Lukashenka, a hybrid war can also be waged against them.

I am sure that the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment will be happy to make an “excursion” to Minsk if there will be such an opportunity.

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