Volodymyr Fesenko About NATO Summit: Russians Get Hysterical About Unpleasant Surprises

Possible decisions on Ukraine are still maintaining intrigue.

A two-day NATO Summit started today in Vilnius. This is the first international event of this level in Lithuania. Leaders, heads of diplomacy, defence ministers and other dignitaries from more than 40 states attended it.

Charter97.org asked Volodymyr Fesenko, a prominent Ukrainian political scientist, CEO of the Penta Center of Applied Political Surveys, to highlight the main features of this historic summit:

– It must solve three main issues. The first is just symbolic, it concerns Sweden, and now they have come close to it. It was planned that it was at this summit that Sweden would become the 32nd NATO member state. The issue with Turkish President Recep Erdogan was solved almost at the last moment yesterday. Even Sweden's accession to NATO must be ratified by the Hungarian parliament.

I think that this will happen after the summit, but in Vilnius both Erdogan and the Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán will say that they support Sweden's accession to NATO. It remains only to make it legally through the decisions of parliaments.

The second important issue is the approval of a new NATO doctrine aimed at deterring Russia. Participants in the Madrid summit last year agreed to prepare it. NATO troops must be ready to promptly repel a possible Russian attack on the countries bordering it: the Baltic countries, Poland and the Black Sea countries.

They are strengthening NATO troops in these countries now, improving weapons supplies (including aircraft and heavy vehicles) and changing tactical and operational plans.

The new doctrine is aimed at strengthening the eastern flank of NATO in order to counter Russian aggression. The adoption of the doctrine will be the main task of this summit. By the way, in this regard, they will also discuss NATO's policy towards China.

– What is the third issue, in your opinion?

– The main intrigue of this summit, of course, is connected with the topic of the prospects for Ukraine's NATO membership and the topic of support for Ukraine. After all, the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war has been the main challenge for NATO for 1.5 years.

I’d like to say that the problem around which there are intense discussions is how to respond to Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO as soon as possible. The participants in the summit and we too understand that Ukraine will be able to join NATO only after the end of the current war.

But Ukraine claims that this accession should be complete according to a quick procedure. Just as Finland entered and now Sweden is entering. Don't go through the transition period of the NATO membership action plan. The United States, however, until the last moment said that no, it is necessary to follow the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). This is the main controversial issue that has arisen.

I would say that for NATO there is a dilemma of Ukraine. It is impossible to refuse our desire to become a NATO member, it would be unfair in the current situation, and, secondly, it would be perceived as a concession to Russia, which is also extremely wrong. Finally, this is also the subject of sharp disagreements within NATO, which is also not good. Therefore, a common position must be sought. You need to give a positive answer. But what?

As I said, there are differences in positions: a number of countries insist on supporting Ukraine to the maximum and that it must become a NATO member state. They insist on very forceful language, but the US and Germany believe that there is no need to rush and make direct promises to Ukraine.

– Then what is your forecast? Will the summit consider the decision on Ukraine's NATO membership issue?

– I emphasize that I do not have insides, but I assume that they will declare that the process of Ukraine's NATO membership will be started after the end of the war. Perhaps they will note that Ukraine will join the Alliance according to some special procedure without the MAP.

In addition, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that a special long-term program would be adopted to integrate the Armed Forces and security forces of Ukraine into the NATO operational command. We will talk about the coordination and integration of operational systems. This is also a process of practical integration of Ukraine into NATO.

An important point is that the NATO-Ukraine Council will be created. This is a positive gesture towards Kyiv. Previously, there was a commission, and the Council - a higher level of interaction and coordination between NATO and Ukraine. The first meeting will take place in Vilnius.

There will also be a discussion of this issue, and it will be reflected in the final documents that some NATO member states (the United States, likely Great Britain and some others) will provide Ukraine with security guarantees until it joins NATO. This refers to the continuation of military assistance after the end of the war: macroeconomic assistance, sanctions against the aggressor, and assistance to Ukraine in the restoration and development of its defence industry.

Here is a set of issues that will be discussed and adopted in regard to Ukraine at this summit. Some of them will be reflected in the decision of the Ukraine-NATO Council, but the main issues, including the prospects for membership and security guarantees, will most likely be reflected in the final document of the summit.

– You always closely follow the agenda in the Russian media. What is happening there now against the backdrop of the summit in Vilnius?

– On the one hand, they were in some kind of euphoria when Joe Biden said that there was no need to rush Ukraine's entry into NATO. But just on the eve of the summit, Volodymyr Zelensky made a blitz tour of a number of European countries.

As a result, Bulgaria signed a declaration supporting Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. It is very significant that France is also supporting Ukraine's entry into NATO.

A very unpleasant surprise for the Russians was that Erdogan not only let the Azovites go, but supported Ukraine's NATO membership. I’d like to emphasize that 23 countries - more than 2/3 of NATO member states, have already supported Ukraine's NATO membership. Of course, Russia got hysterical about it. Russian state figures, for example, Dmitry Medvedev, are traditionally trying to blackmail NATO, stating that if Ukraine becomes a member of the Alliance even in the future, this will complicate relations, but now these attempts are less effective.

The West was really afraid of this in the past, that is why they refused to provide MAP for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008. Now there is an understanding that if Ukraine remains in the “grey zone”, outside NATO, then this does not reduce the risks of war, but only increases, because Russia has already attacked countries that are not NATO member states during Putin's rule and continues to threaten them. First of all, we are talking about Georgia and Ukraine.

No attacks were launched against NATO member states, so it is precisely membership in the Alliance that can guarantee the security of Ukraine and the European countries, and deter Russia from a new war.

Many politicians, public officials, experts of the NATO member states got a real understanding. There is not yet a full consensus, but this view is now very common.