Andrei Sannikov: Russian Rebellion May Trigger Actions Of Belarusian Special Services

It became clear that Putin would not last long in power.

Andrei Sannikov, the leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign and the former Belarus presidential candidate, warns Lithuania of imminent danger in an interview with 15min.lt. Aliaksandr Lukashenka and the equally mad Vladimir Putin may be hatching out plans to attack NATO member states. In his opinion, the unrecognized ruler of Belarus remains a vassal of the Russian president.

Only One Way Out

According to Sannikov, Lukashenka's role in settling the conflict with Wagner Group was simply following the Kremlin's instructions.

“Agree, it is quite strange when the ruler of one country suddenly starts solving a major internal conflict of another country.

Also, it is really strange that information about the settlement first appears in the reports of another country, and not in the Kremlin sources.

Most likely, Putin decided that it was “dead” for him to humiliate himself before talking with the head of Wagner, and entrusted this to his vassal.”

“Lukashenka has no more allies, only Putin. He has no one else, only Lukashenka, so they hold on to each other like two idiots,” Sannikov added.

In his opinion, the Wagnerite rebellion exposed Russia's problems to such an extent that it became clear that the fall of the Kremlin regime became only a matter of time.

“Putin simply ceased to exist after this rebellion. He showed his weakness. If someone wants to finish him, it’s the best time. Both Putin and Lukashenka are just criminals, illegitimate heads of state. Especially Lukashenka: no one elected him. Also no one supportes him and everyone just hates him.

Putin, who has been trying to create the image of a strong and unbending leader for so long, has shown that he is a weak coward.

In my opinion, Putin's biggest mistake after the mutiny was the decision to close the criminal case against Yevgeny Prigozhin on the fact of the death of military personnel, because several officers of the Russian army were killed. They were people whom he, as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, is supposed to protect.

He stopped the case against real gangsters instead of punishment, criminals fighting together with Prigozhin. So, what kind of leader is he after that?! I think that this whole situation has become a kind of litmus test - soon we will see the collapse. It has already begun,” Sannikov said.

Lithuania Has To Worry

Answering the question about whether the "Wagner rebellion" could give impetus to Russia's preparations for an attack on a NATO country, Sannikov suggested that this is possible.

“Putin is crazy, so he can really plan such an attack and use Lukashenka for this.

There may be several strike directions - they may try to concentrate forces and attack Kyiv, but I would not rule out that Lithuania, Latvia or Poland, countries that have a common border with Belarus, could be targets,” he said.

According to Sannikov, the unrecognized ruler of Belarus did not dare to give the order to fight in Ukraine, because he understood the possible outcome for him personally.

“The people of the country and the opposition made it very clear to him that such a step would end badly for him.

That hatred for Lukashenko, which manifested itself after the last "elections", has not disappeared anywhere, but only intensified. And this is aggravated by the repressions taking place inside the country. Lukashenka is simply afraid that if he fulfils Putin's order to enter the war, he will be gone very soon. That would be his last decision.

Also, he does not have enough funds in order to ensure the loyalty of the army.

He pays well to the ‘Gestapo’ for beating civilians, and he no longer has money for the army to ‘buy’ the ideological loyalty of the soldiers,” said the Belarusian politician.

According to Sannikov, Lukashenka also understands that direct participation in the war with Ukraine may end up with Belarusian soldiers simply joining Ukrainian troops and fighting together against the Russians.

There is also a high probability that mass desertion will begin. Lukashenka may simply be left without an army.

The politician stresses that Lukashenka is the only ally of the Putin regime, so it is rather strange that sanctions have been imposed only against Russia for more than a year, and no new sanctions packages have been proposed against the regime in Belarus.

"Why is this? What lobbies help Lukashenka to survive? These are very important questions. Because the danger emanating from this regime threatens not only Ukraine, but the whole of Europe, and the danger is growing. If the Wagner criminals come to Belarus, they will threaten Ukraine. This is completely unacceptable,” the politician said.

Sannikov stressed that the regime in Belarus is different from the regime in Russia. The ‘Wagner rebellion” made it clear that Putin would not last long in power and this could trigger internal changes in Belarus.

“There are only a few people around Lukashenka who unconditionally support him, criminals who torture and kill people on his orders.

The Belarusian security services should think about this and be able to switch sides in time if they want to save their families and their children. Otherwise, they will also become targets.

Look how many unexpected events have happened in this region lately. Black swans fly more and more often, and one day all these dictatorships will collapse. Therefore, I would suggest that the Belarusian security services help both regimes to crumble faster,” he urged.

“Lukashenka is convinced that he is immortal. He does not even think about the transit of power.

He is doing everything himself, from fighting the opposition to harvesting potatoes. He is such a collective farm Stalin - an expert in every field,” the politician said.

Asked whether the Kremlin can take advantage of the collapse of power in Belarus, and whether it is dangerous, Sannikov referred to the experience of Lithuania.

“Remember what happened when you fought for independence. After all, you were also told that if you anger Russia, there may be a war. Well, you did not listen to all these intimidations, now you are members of the European Union and NATO. You are living much better than the ‘next to the Russians’. Belarus could also do this, especially since we have huge resources,” he said.

Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya

As for the possible forceful option of changing power in Belarus, Sannikov is skeptical about the role of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

“You’ve made Tsikhanouskaya. I'm not kidding. Your government [Lithuanian - Ed.] cut off all contacts with the real opposition in Belarus and with our partners abroad and rushes about with this “suitcase without a handle”.

Tsikhanouskaya is surrounded by people who created this regime. They did not fight it.

I've discussed this issue back in August 2020. I don't want anything to do with those people.

They are impostors who call themselves leaders of the Belarusian opposition. The real opposition does not recognize them and I do not recognize them,” Sannikov said.