Oleksandr Musienko On Liberation Of Belarus: Brigade Comes In From Two Flanks, Blocking Military Units

For success, five or six thousand fighters are needed.

Among the majority of Belarusians who want change, today there is a consensus that the country needs to be liberated by military means. Hopes for the overthrow of the Lukashenka regime are associated with the regiment of Kastus Kalinouski and other volunteers who are fighting in Ukraine.

What could a military operation to liberate Belarus look like? How many fighters do we need for such a campaign? Will there be weapons?

The Charter97.org website talked about this with a military expert, head of the Center for Military Legal Research Oleksandr Musienko.

— Under what conditions can a liberation campaign of Belarusian volunteers begin on the territory of Belarus? Let's simulate the situation.

— The first condition is the deterioration of Lukashenka's health. We've been through this before. Signs that he is becoming weak and may lose power.

The second is the significant successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front. For example, a successful offensive. Roughly speaking, if Ukrainian troops reach the Crimea, all of Russia's attention will be directed to defensive actions in this direction. The Russians will do their best to oppose the liberation of the peninsula.

The third point is that if Russia continues to use Belarus as a platform for confrontation with the West, it will blackmail with the use of nuclear weapons that it will bring there. If Belarus starts some kind of provocation, it will untie the hands of Poland, Lithuania, and some NATO countries. In this scenario, the task is not to occupy Belarus, but to get the country out of Russia's protectorate.

These are the three scenarios that exist now, I think.

— According to various estimates, up to two thousand Belarusians are fighting in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — this is both the Kalinouski regiment and the Terror battalion, Belarusian units are being created in the Second International Legion, there are Belarusians in the Ukrainian units. How many fighters do we need to liberate Belarus?

— I will answer this way: it may seem to someone that five or six brigades are needed. The classic says that for an offensive you need to have three times as many soldiers as the defending side. However, this is a classic, but here everything can be different, since there is reason to believe that a sufficient number of Belarusian military men are not ready for war, especially for civil war. These are not invaders, but citizens of Belarus.

I think that many Belarusian military will start going over to the side of the Kalinouski regiment and other volunteer formations. Hence the tasks that need to be set for ourselves: entering the territory of Belarus and blocking the main units, military facilities located in the West of the country, cutting them off from Minsk and enlisting the support of the military. To do this, you need to have a brigade — it's about five or six thousand. The task of this brigade will be divided into two directions. One direction is in the southeast, the other is in the southwest.

I am sure that due to the way the volunteers will approach the military units, the military will lay down their arms and go over to their side. With this support, you can advance to Minsk.

The classic numerical advantage does not always work, and the Russian-Ukrainian war proves it. Everyone also told us that “there is no need to carry out counter-offensive actions, because there are more Russians”. We have proven that it is possible. Therefore, the key to the liberation of Belarus is to enlist the support of the military and do a common cause. This will help to avoid mass bloodshed.

— The strength of the Armed Forces of Belarus is about 35 thousand. However, there are big questions about the loyalty of these units. Experts say that the Special Operations Forces and internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs remain loyal to Lukashenka. Can they give some serious rebuff?

— Theoretically, these could be the Special Operations Forces, but there is reason to believe that not all of them are ready to fight. In Belarus, their number is at the level of one brigade. As soon as the Belarusian volunteer movements begin to acquire support among the military and people, the SOF will not be able to change the situation, just like the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB. Therefore, if the volunteers will attract at least half of the regular troops to their side, this will mean success.

When I say that it is necessary to block military facilities, I am talking about the units where weapons, special equipment, and supplies are located. After all, no one will fight without weapons. I think if some units do not want to go over to the side of the volunteers and are loyal to Lukashenka, there will be such clashes. But I don't think it will be the majority of those 35,000.

— How will Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine behave if the Belarusian volunteers decide to return to Belarus? Will they hinder or help in some way?

— I don't think anyone will stop them. We cannot prevent the citizens of Belarus who want to return to their homes. We have no complaints about the people who today help us fight Russian troops and aggression, we are only grateful to them. If, say, they want

to come back — no one will interfere. If they ask for some kind of support that we can provide (I think, except for the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Belarus, this, it seems to me, is out of the question), why not. We should be grateful. If these people helped us, then we can help with weapons and resources.

— So it turns out that there are weapons?

— If people are looking for something in the name of bright ideas, there are those who can help them. With weapons, the issue will be resolved.

— We saw the operations of Russian volunteers when they entered the territory of the Belgorod region, took several villages there, made their way to the cities. How might an approximate scenario of such an operation in Belarus look like?

— Such tactics are possible, but the most important thing is to advance towards large military units. I deliberately say this, because the military needs to be explained that you can take the side of the people and the Belarusian society, or you will be surrounded. It is necessary to choose. Any other scenarios, when Belarusian troops are pulled out to other places and areas, clashes are allowed, I think, they can be a backup plan when there are some disloyal units.

But the most important thing is the West, Brest, Hrodna, Baranavichi, where the military units are located. The second part of the brigade — through Homel. It is better to enter from two flanks and enlist the support of the military.

In the case of the RVC and the Freedom of Russia Legion, unfortunately, there are too many security officials who are loyal to Putin, they are ready to use weapons against their compatriots. In the case of Belarus, I see it differently. We saw the protests that the Belarusians came out to. I am far from thinking that all these people are scattered around the world and all have left the country. They are also among the military. Therefore, here you need to try and forceful actions, but with minimal losses.

There is a chance to enlist the support of the military. Those Belarusians who are inside the country and are ready for action do not have someone who would lead them. As soon as such people appear, also with weapons in their hands, the situation will change.

— In one of the interviews, you said that you are personally acquainted with the Kalinovites. What can you say about our guys?

— They are very good, bright and kind people. By the way, they have an interesting page on Youtube, it is worth subscribing for. It can be seen that for them the victory of Ukraine over Russia and the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories is an intermediate stage in the struggle. Maybe they'll talk about it differently. It can be seen that the Belarusian volunteers have support.

Frankly, we have no aggression towards Belarusians. Yes, we have aggression towards Lukashenka and the government of Belarus. We hope and believe that Belarusians should seize their chance. If our help is needed, it should be there. It's in the general interest. A normal democratic Belarus without a pro-Russian regime and nuclear weapons that Putin wants to tighten is security for Ukraine.

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