The Kremlin's "towers" are fighting over who will be to blame for the disaster.
Charter97.org asked Ukrainian military analyst, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernik about developments on the Ukrainian front:
- There is a so-called strategic fire balance on the front. This is not the first time we have been in it. It happened last summer, from May to September. In the strategic context, the enemy still has forces for operational pressure in the direction of Bakhtum.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, staying in very high-quality maneuver defense, are currently fulfilling the main strategic purpose of Bakhtum regarding the total destruction of the enemy's manpower and equipment. The combat potential of the AFU will increase. Sooner or later, the end will come when we start to liberate our lands, but this is a very sensitive topic, which requires absolute silence.
No one witnessed the Kharkiv brilliant operation, and it happened. The next operations are bound to add up, too. The only question is where, when and under what circumstances. We take the position of not discussing this process.
- British intelligence reported casualties on the part of the Russian military near Avdiivka. It is reported that most of the tank regiment was defeated. Before that, there were heavy tank losses at Ugledar. Columns of armored vehicles went on the assault there. Why don't Russian occupants learn from their mistakes and continue to use these suicidal tactics?
- I would not say that they do not learn. One should take a propaganda moment in account. They can't take Bakhmut. Putin has given a series of orders to move to the administrative lines of the Donetsk region. They can't implement it.
Moreover, there was a strong psychological blow to the enemy. They started shouting everywhere on their media platforms that "Bakhmut is almost captured," and then suddenly Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky came to Bakhmut himself and decorated Ukrainian soldiers. This is a very serious trauma for their propaganda.
They couldn't but come up with changing the focus from Bakhmut to Ugledar and Avdiivka, thinking that military fortune might smile on them there. I will say that they are even right in some respects. War is the way of deception, the art of opportunity, the battle of intelligences. Here they have shifted the focus. But Ukrainians have shown their unsurpassed skill and courage.
- Russia continues to constantly rotate the command of the occupation army. The practice of awarding or returning fired Russian generals who have failed in certain objectives is also surprising. What is the reason?
- It is also a matter of personnel shortage. One should remember that there is an internal and very serious struggle between the "Kremlin towers" raging there. Indeed, there are not so many people who can hold the blows.
Speaking objectively, changing the order of the addends does not change the sum. Russians are all bad for us, there are no exceptions. I emphasize that all are bad. All the rotations and replacements that take place there have no strategic impact on the course of combat operations. All the generals are toxic, their competence does not matter.
Their goal is the elimination of our statehood. Our goal is to destroy as many of them as possible, to make lifу of our grandchildren easier. The more we destroy them now, the easier it will be for us in the next war.
- You mentioned "the towers of the Kremlin. What do you think is going on in the Russian top ranks right now?
- There are three main "towers". The first one is Putin himself. Earlier this group also included Kadyrov and Prigozhin, but so far, he has pushed them away. The second tower is the military - I call them the "kirzaks" - Shoigu, Gerasimov, and the third is Bortnikov-Patrushev.
There is a fierce struggle between them over who is to blame for the catastrophe. Either the FSB people who assured Putin that it was safe to start a war, or the Defense Ministry will be blamed for not ending the war in three days. But there will definitely be people to blame.
They can't have it that there are no guilty ones. Someone is bound to be punished. The only question is who it will be. But it will not affect the course of the war in any way. Again, they are all enemies for us.
The fact is that the struggle between the "towers of the Kremlin" will increase, and the strange "heart attacks" or "car crashes" will occur, that is certainly a good thing. After all, the more chaos at the top of their state's hierarchy - the more mistakes they make, which improves Ukraine's conditions for victory.