IDF Officer On Kalinouski Regiment: Liberation Of Belarus Is Realistic Scenario

Belarusian volunteers are capable of becoming a liberation army.

How strong has the AFU become? Will Lukashenka attack Ukraine? Can fighters of the Kalinouski regiment become a liberation army in Belarus?

Yigal Levin, an expert and officer of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), who defends Ukraine with arms in his hands, told about it in his interview to Charter97.org.

- You are breaking the mold set by Russian propagandists who are talking about "Ukrainian Nazis". How is it possible that an Israeli defends Ukraine today?

- I was born in Odessa, so Ukraine is close to me. Although I grew up in Israel and consider it my homeland, Ukraine holds just as much place in my heart, as do the people who live here.

- Are there many volunteers from Israel fighting in the armed forces today?

- Different figures are mentioned. According to my calculations - about two hundred, maybe a few hundred.

- You are a combat officer in the IDF, one of the best armies in the world. How would you assess the level of training of the AFU? How strong is the army nowadays?

- This is not a simple question, it cannot be answered briefly. There are a lot of problems, weak links in the Ukrainian army. But they should not be made public during the war, it would help the enemy. From what can be said at this point, I will highlight that the training of junior and mid-level commanders still needs improvement. It is not for nothing that England started a joint programme with Ukrainian fighters. It is clear that if Ukraine had a good enough level of infantry, England would not have taken it upon itself to train them. You don't have to be a military analyst to understand these things.

On the other hand, the AFU have many things that the Israeli army does not have. Although the IDF is considered one of the strongest armies, it can only "run a short distance". Ukraine has been at war for six months now, and I have great doubts whether the IDF could withstand such a strong enemy for so long. Combat missions in Israel are designed to last no more than two months, otherwise the economy is exhausted. So there is no talk of such things as rotation there, for example.

Naturally, Ukraine has already accomplished operations that Israel has never done, such as an air bridge to Azovstal. It is an unprecedented thing, very complicated, requiring great competence and courage. You cannot say whether Israel would have done better or worse, because it has never done such a thing. There has never been a situation like Azovstal, so that a whole town was blockaded and the people were holding their ground. There have never been such examples in the history of Israel.

To sum it up, there is a lot to work on and improve. However the ability to overcome hardships, fighting spirit, fortitude and courage of the Ukrainian army is very high, in many respects even above the level of the Defence Forces of Israel. I am sure of it.

- How likely do you see today an invasion of Ukraine by Lukashenka's army? What goals could the Kremlin set for the army of the Belarusian dictator?

- The probability of intervention by the Belarusian army is low, but it exists. It is a real threat, but not the highest one. The aim is simple - to create a second front to draw Ukrainian forces to the north of the country. Ukraine is already keeping quite a few of its units on the Belarusian border just in case. If a second front opens up, Ukraine will have to redeploy additional forces there. Naturally, this will be to the Kremlin's advantage, because it will weaken the southern and eastern fronts.

- Today, Belarusian volunteers are fighting on the side of Ukraine. In particular - the Kalinouski regiment. How do they assess the level of Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine?

- They are brave fighters, I have never heard any criticism about them. They were fighting both in Severodonetsk and near Lysychansk, when there were desperate battles there. Let me remind you that in those hard times Ukraine was losing up to a hundred fighters a day, now - up to thirty. At that time, a lot of worthy and brave people died, including - the commander of "Volat" battalion Ivan "Brest" Marchuk, some fighters were taken prisoners.

This shows that they were at the cutting edge of events, in the most combat zones. So no one could ever accuse them of cowardice, nor of poor training. They had trained hard, and when the full-scale invasion began, they started to organize themselves.

On the whole, it is now a motivated combat-ready regiment. If any problems arise there, they are connected, in principle, as in other military structures of Ukraine, with financing. This is a structural problem, a problem of funding, supplies, weapons and so on. We see that not only volunteers, but even the AFU is assisted by various volunteer organizations.

- How realistic is the scenario of a liberation march by the Kalinouski regiment to Belarus?

- I wrote about this, by the way, two months ago, saying that the Kalinouski regiment could become the Belarusian Liberation Army. It's all realistic, it just requires investments. The forces that want the Belarusian dictator to be overthrown, for Belarus to follow the western democratic way, must start investing in it all. It will not be possible to go far just on the enthusiasm of the guys and some donations. Naturally, it requires proper financing and organization. If there are sponsors who can support the idea, it will have a better chance of success.

If you look at structures such as De Gaulle's Fighting French, they did not exist on their own. They existed with the help of the Western coalition, Britain and the United States. If we look at the weaponry with which the French entered liberated Paris in 1944, it was all American weapons that were given to them.

Therefore, creating the army of free Belarus is a good intention, which is not yet supported by the real money. One of the songs on the verses of the Kastus Kalinouski battalion volunteer sings "I liberate Belarus through liberating Ukraine". It is a very beautiful and correct metaphor. But such an initiative requires serious investments.

- The situation on the front, especially in the south, is beginning to change. There are reports of a mousetrap near Kherson. Has there been a turning point in the war?

- There are indeed big threats to the Russian army there, but there is no mousetrap there. The counter-offensive in the south of Ukraine is now underway, it is developing. The AFU have been working on bridges to cut off the grouping of Russian armed forces in Kherson region. The situation there is very unpleasant for the occupants, they do not see a way out of it yet. Of course, they do not want to leave Kherson, but it is difficult to say how and where they will be able to find this way out.

There is no way the Russian army can stop the realization of the capabilities of the weapons Ukraine has received from its Western partners. First and foremost - the missiles for the HIMARS systems. According to official data alone, they have destroyed about 80 commanders. This is a lot, these are headquarters, these are commanders, lieutenant colonels, captains. And that's just the HIMARS. They have become a very important factor in the decommandization of the Russian armed forces.

- How long do you think Putin will last in this war?

- It is like reading the coffee grounds. A third army corps is being created in the Russian Federation. It will be organized from the national minorities from across Russia, and will include subjects from all over the Russian Federation. Experts and analysts estimate that between 15,000 and 20,000 people may be recruited into it. These are the last of the volunteers who are willing to go there. There are people who are under 60, people from depressed regions, the lumpen, the declassified elements and so on. This is the last category that can be gathered for the war.

From here on, it is only mobilization. That is a separate topic, whether Russia is ready for it at all. One important factor is the acute shortage of junior and mid-level commanders. If for example you mobilize 300 thousand men, you need a great number of commanders, lieutenants, majors, captains and so on. Russia doesn't have them, there are problems with commanders even in regular units.

The Russian Federation had planned to take Ukraine in three days, so they did not prepare a reserve command corps. They did not plan to fight for six months, much less a year. So Putin is hoping for this third army corps to try and crush Donetsk region. But I have great doubts that he will succeed. Next, the Kremlin will try its best to force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table.

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