Russia's troops will be exhausted in a few days, even in the Izyum direction.
The Russian occupation troops in Ukraine are exhausted. In a few days, they will be exhausted even in the Izyum direction. Enemy units on Ukrainian territory cannot conduct an offensive for a month in a row. They need to replenish reserves, but this is not happening. In addition, the AFU have weakened them and counterattacked their offensive potential. At the moment, both Ukrainian defence forces and enemy forces need to replenish reserves, after that a new phase of active war can start. The advantage will go to the side that is more agile. If the West provides sufficient volumes of weapons, the AFU will launch a counter-offensive by mid- and late June. Military expert Oleh Zhdanov made this statement.
On the air of Ukraine 24, he said that after a few days, the Russian troops would also run out of strength in the Izyum direction, as there is no replenishment of reserves and the units are weakened. Ukrainian troops have shot down their offensive potential.
"My analysis suggests that 3-4 more days and the Russian troops will run out of strength even in the Izyum direction. It is impossible to conduct offensives for a month in a row, we need to replenish reserves and make up for losses. There is no such replenishment. Those troops that are in Ukraine are exhausted, we have battered them badly. Our command got ahead of this event (depletion of Russian troops) and disrupted the offensive potential with a counterstrike," Zhdanov said.
According to the expert, the AFU and Russian troops need to replenish reserves at the moment. After that, a new phase of active combat operations may commence. The side which acts faster will have an advantage. Russia will not be able to attack within the next month.
"Now, as Defence Minister Reznikov said, we were on the threshold of a positional war. Both sides need an operational pause to regroup. And here the one who does it faster will win. Russia certainly doesn't have reserves for an offensive for the next month, unless they open up some areas and start to relocate troops. But we will notice it at once. According to the US intelligence community, the Russian army is 2-3 weeks behind schedule. British intelligence reports the same. They need a pause for about a month to gather some reserve and replenish losses. We need to do that too. And whoever does it first will have the advantage at the end of this operational phase," explained the expert.
He also stressed that the active phase of the war may resume by the middle or second half of June. Then the Ukrainian defence forces may launch a counteroffensive. But this will be possible if the Ukrainian troops receive a sufficient amount of weapons from the West. Weapons should not only come as part of the lend-lease but also on the basis of the military assistance agreed with the West in March and April.