Battles For Bakhmut Become Trap For Russian Forces

The tactics have led the occupiers to a dead end.

Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War believe the Russian occupiers have failed to learn lessons from previous costly campaigns focusing on operationally insignificant settlements.

According to the experts, the battles for the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk Region resemble previous attempts of the Russian occupiers to take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and may become a trap for the invaders.

The ISW reminded that the military had been constantly wasting combat forces on small settlements around the town since late May, and in the next six months they were only able to capture a few kilometres of territory. In doing so, they suffered a large number of casualties.

"This pattern of operations is very similar to their previous attempts to take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at the start of the war," analysts said.

The ISW estimates that during June and July 2022, the Ukrainian Defence Forces actually allowed Russian forces to focus on the said two towns near the border with Luhansk Region, which are of limited operational and strategic importance, in order to benefit from the ongoing degradation of Russian manpower and equipment during months of sustained fighting.

Russian forces eventually captured Lysychansk and Severodonetsk and reached the border of Luhansk oblast, but this tactical success resulted in little operational effect.

"Russia's efforts in this area have for the most part been deadlocked, as they were in early July. Even if its forces continue to advance towards and within Bakhmut, even if they force a controlled retreat of Ukrainians from the town (as they did in Lysychansk), Bakhmut itself offers them little operational advantage," the ISW said.

Analysts note that the losses associated with six months of brutal fighting around Bakhmut far outweigh any operational advantage the occupiers may gain from taking the town.

At the same time, Russian offensives around Bakhmut are absorbing much of the available combat power of the Russian Armed Forces, potentially contributing to continued Ukrainian counteroffensives in other locations.