Telephone conversations led to a clear understanding that it is useless to call Minsk.
Nobody argues that the operation with the migration crisis has failed. Europe did not accept migrants. No one sat down at the negotiating table with terrorists. No one is going to give money to the junta (payment for evacuation flights, if necessary, will go past the Belarusian ticket office). The crisis with the skirmish on the border did not happen either.
Let's see what we have in the bottom line.
Inside the country. There is an unknown number of migrants brought in by the junta, some of whom are tired and want to go home. Some still hope to be among the very two thousand that the Blue-Fingered man promised Germany.
In any case, these are costs that will soon exceed the junta's earnings on the migrants themselves. This is the discontent of not very tolerant Belarusians who are forced to support migrants. Moreover, such dissatisfied persons appear in the “parliament”, and in the “government”, and in other bodies, where assistance to migrants came to the fore.
These are the completely discredited Arda’s trade unions and the Belarusian Red Cross Society, which provide assistance to anyone, but not their members and not Belarusians in the dungeons of the junta.
This is a drop in morale in the camp of the cockroach army, which, instead of a victorious march to Vilnius, Warsaw and Berlin, is forced to ensure the retreat of the “migrant cavalry”.
There are more and more hopes among them that they will manage to flee to Russia, ”in case of anything”. But promises about luxurious conditions in the ranks of the Russian security forces should be believed exactly to the same extent as promises about humanitarian corridors to Germany. For greater persuasiveness, it can only be noted that the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian security officials who went over to the Russian side in Crimea were fired in the first 1-2 years. There is nothing to be surprised about - marauders and traitors have an extremely limited period of demand.
On the outer loop. The vague fifth sanctions package transformed into the establishment of new principles for the imposition of sanctions, including for aiding illegal migration.
“Migrantavia” will land for at least a year. Other airlines that will still fly to Minsk will be extremely careful to filter their passengers based on citizenship.
Moreover, the list includes enterprises that were previously forgotten and now they are actively trying to get around the sanctions, which loomed like a bolt from the blue.
And this is complemented by the fact that each new package discourages the desire to work with the junta just like that. Only the Austrians and Yara resist to the last, they no longer hide what they think about the interests of their business, “which was taken hostage by the junta”.
Telephone conversations about the migration crisis have led to a clear understanding that it is useless to call Minsk. Even Merkel, even if Putin asked - because it doesn't solve anything. All this creates a certain threat that the Belarusian issue will be resolved “over their heads”. This is exactly how, after several calls from the United States and Russia, Bakiyev was forced to flee from Kyrgyzstan to Belarus.
Increasing stakes between the superpowers can lose sharply on all fronts. By the way, Josie is sure that after her retirement, Merkel will take the role of a high-ranking negotiator in Europe in resolving crises like Belarus.
As a result, the no-vector foreign policy of the junta turned into monitoring the vectors of the foreign policy of others. The junta achieved all this with its own hands in a month of active actions to ensure another “foreign policy breakthrough”.
December promises to be even more fun. The country is being prepared for an alternative reality, in which Ukraine can attack Russia, and migrants are no longer refugees seeking a better life, but a hybrid weapon of the West in the fight against Russia, which is used to “bind the cockroach army”.
If we translate this nonsense into human language, we still need a war. By the way, it is not at all obvious from the statements of the Blue-Fingered guy which side he will be on in this conflict. On this score, no one has any illusions either, however. The only thing that remains is that the dummies in the uniform finally get it.
The Nick and Mike Telegram channel