Special Operation ‘Integration’

The program of the Belarusian-Russian integration has been signed, but has remained a secret.

Apparently, the peoples of Belarus and Russia remain of so little interest to their rulers that the latter see no need to inform them about anything, or, God forbid, discuss anything with those people. So, information leaks become the main method of communication between the leaders and the citizens. Thanks to thereof, Russians and and Belarusians happen to find out who agreed on what and who quarrelled with whom.

On Monday, September 16, the countries and peoples started discussing the leak, published by Kommersant. This refers to the project for the integration of Russia and Belarus, which, it turns out, the Prime Ministers initialed 10 days ago. The integration project, according to Kommersant, involves a partial integration of the two economic systems since January 2021.

This is the introduction of a single tax code, the abolition of mutual roaming, a common customs policy up to a common customs service, and a single regulator of oil, gas and electricity markets.

And also - general access to public procurement, a unified system of property accounting, general economic legislation.

True, there is not a word in the draft about a single emission center and a common currency, with which they have long scared children in Belarus. Nothing is said about the compensation for the Russian tax maneuver either, although it was precisely with the demand for compensation for Minsk that last year’s confrontation began, when Moscow set deep integration as a condition for the compensation.

Russian President’s Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on the same day that the information, published by Kommersant, “has merely preliminary character”, although “huge amount of work has been done by both parties”. In turn, Aliaksandr Lukashenka met with Head of the Belarusian Customs Committee Yury Sianko. During the meeting, he said they would have to go back to the issue of compensation. Renown Belarusian economist, Head of the ‘Strategy’ analytical center Leanid Zaika commented on the situation specially for Novaya Gazeta.

-I believe the tax maneuver was nothing but a theoretical mistake of the Russian economists, who came up with the idea of the export duty. This was a stupid mistake, they gave it up later. Although the economic science says that there should be rent payments in the extraction spots.

Well, the Russians changed their mind in 20 years. Why should they compensate anything to Belarus? We are an independent country, we need to stop sitting on the pipe. What we need to do is to develop our own macroeconomic policy. If I were in the shoes of the Russians, I would blow off all these compensation talks.

-When you were reading the description of the integration project for a half of the year, didn’t it seem to you that this text reminded a school essay written on the night before it’s due, when the most important thing is to write at least anything, and the contents appear of a secondary importance?

-Everything that I’ve read has been discussed since long ago. Back in the 90s they talked about the synchronization of the tax system and the monetary policy. This is a never-ending, slow-moving theme, which makes it to the surface sometimes. it has no scientific value, because everything there is not to hold water.

- Belarusian PM Siarhei Rumas said back in August that the principle “two countries - one market” is set in the basis of the integration program, and that the state bodies should develop 28 roadmaps for different sectors of the economy. However, haven’t this “one market” existed before?

-This is an out-of-context phrase, nothing should be expected from it. It’s just, they needed to write something. So they wrote “two countries - one market”. They could replace it with “two countries - one democracy”, or “two countries - one social responsibility”. These just words, with no secret meaning. In the reality, all the laws on integration which ensure free circulation of goods, manpower, and capital, have long been adopted. So this market is partially working already, although in the reduced form.

-Have you noticed this “secret meaning” in some other phrases, maybe?

-We haven’t seen the full text yet, we are just dealing with the information leak. It’s no use to try to read between lines and assign something to someone, when we don’t have the concrete text on hands. But they certainly did a stupid thing, having sent Siarhei Rumas to initiale or sign something - he is not as strong in these things as old nomenclature wolves.

It turned out in the end that two PMs hid somewhere in a stone cave and wrote and signed something under the light of a torch.

Herein, no one considered the interests of the business circles, no one discussed anything, or held consultations. The result is some sideline-nomenclature counterfeit, hastily done.

- In the project, which has yet existed in the form of a leak, the union of tax and customs systems, industry markets, a single energy regulation is declared, but there is no talk of a single currency and an emission center in the integration program.

- First, there can be nothing else in the monetary policy. Russia is quite well entangled in the nominalist theory of money. Belarusians in general are in a state of slight idiosyncrasy to world monetary systems. There is no problem at all if you look at it professionally. It is enough to declare that a gold standard is being introduced in Russia and Belarus - sooner than China does - and then all the questions about a single emission center and other garbage that was created by representatives of the nominalist theory two hundred years ago will disappear. And at the same time, all non-economic bustle around the emission center will disappear.

- In your opinion, does the published draft, with all its vagueness, pose a threat to the independence of Belarus?

- The threat to the independence of Belarus lies in the fact that the people are in a state of stupor. The GDP growth is less than one percent, while revenues are up 12 percent. That is, there is a system of seducing people in the existing situation. And integration processes are going on all over the world, with the possible exception of Great Britain.

Such small countries as Belarus or conditional Holland should be in integration systems, this is an objective reality.

- But the European and Russian-Belarusian integration systems are still very different. This year, the Union Treaty marks its twentieth anniversary, and over the years nothing has changed significantly in the relations between Russia and Belarus. Maybe in general it makes sense to stop paying attention to periodic integration exacerbations and think exclusively about internal problems?

-You don't need to think about problems at all. All problems are created by our unprofessional management. As for Russia and Belarus, the nomenclature governments sitting on the old theoretical luggage simply cannot create anything new. They are accustomed to arguing about who sells apples and pears or why there is a lot of fat in someone’s sausage. That is, some secondary and tertiary issues.

As soon as these elites retire, they will be replaced by a new, more professional and pragmatic generation, which, I hope, will be able to set priorities. And when you look at the current leaders, I want to say: guys, maybe it’s time to stop doing nonsense? Cancel roaming - they cannot cancel roaming for 20 years. Cancel car insurance: a Belarusian travels to Russia and is forced to buy a “green card”, make the universal insurance for Belarusians and Russians at last. Introduce common health insurance, equal prices for train tickets.

There are a lot of seemingly simple issues that have not been resolved for decades. And if you are not even able to solve them, why are you getting into macroeconomics?

Actually, everything is clear: the words set out in a secretly signed integration program were pronounced and recorded hundreds of times in 20 years, starting with the union agreement itself. There is nothing new, no discoveries. The unpleasant surprise was in something else: everything that happens between our states, for some reason, is becoming more and more secret, except for demonstrative scandals with areal characteristics. And no one knows what else they secretly sign under the torch light.

Iryna Khalip, Novaya Gazeta