Three Reasons Have Been Cited As To Why An Offensive On Kyiv From Belarus Would End In Failure
4- 31.08.2026, 11:08
- 4,874
Minsk is not prepared for such a scenario.
French OSINT analyst Clément Molen considers it unlikely that Russia would attempt to launch a second attack on northern Ukraine via Belarus. In his assessment, Moscow would face serious challenges, according to dialog.ua.
The key factors leading to the failure of the Russian Armed Forces will be: a lack of surprise, high-quality Ukrainian fortifications, and terrain that is difficult to advance through.
Mollen notes that even in 2026, defensive lines are still being actively built in the Chernihiv and Kyiv regions. In particular, a robust system of fortifications has been established around Chernihiv; additional positions are being set up in the Chernobyl area and northeast of Zhytomyr; and barriers are being erected and forested areas cleared along the border.
The analyst cites another factor: Ukraine’s readiness to strike Belarus if its territory is used by Russian troops again. According to Molen, Minsk is not prepared for such a scenario.
Furthermore, an offensive would be complicated by mined roads, dense forests, and swamps. The element of surprise that was present at the start of the full-scale invasion will no longer exist, so a large-scale advance toward Kyiv would require significant forces and time.
At the same time, Molen admits that Russia could launch localized attacks along the border—primarily in the north of the Sumy region and the east of the Chernihiv region. However, these attacks are unlikely to have strategic significance without the deployment of hundreds of thousands of additional troops.
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