Greetings For Lukashenko From The Hague

In lieu of flowers, the ruler may be met with handcuffs.

Political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky believes that a possible warrant of the International Criminal Court (ICC) for Lukashenko's arrest may seriously complicate the geography of his travels. The political scientist writes about it in an article for "Pozirka".

He recalls the situation with Vladimir Putin, who has already been issued an ICC warrant for the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children. Despite this, the Russian president visited Mongolia, a country that recognizes the court's jurisdiction, in 2024. However, he was not arrested there. As Klaskovsky notes, this could have been due to political and economic circumstances. In particular, Mongolia buys a significant part of oil products from Russia.

"Ulaanbaatar decided not to arrest the leader of a nuclear power, from which Mongolians also buy the lion's share of oil products."

At the same time, the political scientist emphasizes, Lukashenko does not have such international weight, so in his case the attitude of other countries may be less cautious.

"But Lukashenko is a person of much smaller caliber, although he likes to threaten Russia with nuclear weapons. And they may not be so ceremonious with him."

Klaskovsky reminds that during Lukashenko's visit to Mongolia in 2024, former President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj had already called on the local authorities to arrest the Belarusian leader, accusing him of crimes against humanity.

In the expert's opinion, the ICC warrant is already having a noticeable impact on Putin's international trips. In 2023, he did not go to the BRICS summit in South Africa, and in 2025, the authorities of that country did not invite the Russian president to the G20 summit, citing the same warrant.

Klaskovsky believes that the consequences for Lukashenko may be even more tangible.

"If the Hague marks him with its seal, then, most likely, the road to many states of the Global South will be closed."

The political scientist notes that already due to repression, election fraud and support for Russian aggression against Ukraine, the Belarusian dictator is not welcome in Western capitals. He also admits a hypothetical situation, when visiting a country recognizing the jurisdiction of the ICC, Lukashenko may face the risk of detention.

"One can imagine his plane landing in some distant country, recognizing the jurisdiction of the ICC... Then instead of flowers, he may be met with handcuffs."

In Klaskovski's opinion, such prospects could be a serious blow to Minsk's political plans. The expert suggests that Lukashenko could count on an improved international position, participation in diplomatic initiatives around the war in Ukraine and its possible post-war reconstruction. However, the threat of an ICC warrant, he believes, narrows these possibilities.

At the same time, the analyst notes, Kiev is hardening its stance toward Minsk. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga said that Ukraine welcomes the ICC's decision to launch an investigation into the crimes of Lukashenko's regime against the people of Belarus.

According to the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Kiev has long advocated holding the Belarusian leadership accountable - both for actions against its own population and for supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine.

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