Expert: The Axis Of Evil Is Falling Apart.

Dismantling the Iranian regime undermines the Kremlin's entire scheme of alliances.

The US and Israeli operation against the regime in Iran continues following the liquidation of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In response, Tehran has been launching chaotic strikes against civilian infrastructure in an attempt to demonstrate strength and keep the situation under control.

What is Washington's ultimate goal in Iran? This and other questions Charter97.org asked military expert, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network and expert of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies Mikhail Samusy:

- The ultimate goal of the operation in Iran is known only to the supreme commander-in-chief and the top leadership of the United States. I don't even think the leadership knows exactly what the United States wants. We can only speculate and analyze the situation.

It is obvious that the United States would like to bring down the Ayatollah regime, achieve a change of power and try to create conditions for negotiations with the new leadership of Iran. And judging by the way the U.S. acts in other countries, including Venezuela, they are not interested now in the model of governance - authoritarian, democratic or whatever. What they are interested in is that the people who came to power in Iran should be contractual, i.e. fulfill the requirements of the U.S. and other countries that consider Iran under the ayatollahs to be part of the "axis of evil". Ukraine also adheres to this position. Therefore, it would be to our advantage for this regime to disappear. Next comes the details.

If the regime in Iran is dismantled, negotiations will begin. Even if it will be representatives of the former system, but they will agree to changes in the country and to work constructively with the United States and international organizations. The U.S. strategic objective now is to oust the existing regime, which is clearly inadequate and a key element of the "axis of evil," which includes Russia and the DPRK, supported by China.

Iran has been busy supporting its proxies throughout the Middle East, destabilizing oil transportation areas, exacerbating the situation around Israel and elsewhere, bringing instability to a region that is critical not only to the global oil industry, but to stability in the world as a whole. So if Iran agrees to cease these activities and focus on economic cooperation and internal transformation (although, again, this does not mean that the U.S. will build democracy there), it opens the door for change.

There are possible successors. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has already spoken to Iranian opposition leaders abroad. But further a lot will depend on how Iran's civil society and population will work, what will be their reaction.

The US method now, in my opinion, has changed. I would use this pattern: strikes that weaken the regime as much as possible, and in parallel, perhaps, there is already communication with representatives of the system who are ready to change the situation.

- What are the consequences of Khamenei's elimination for Putin?

- The "axis of evil" is falling - and that's good. China is not to be envied now. Beijing hoped to implement the strategy of "sitting on the riverbank and waiting for the corpse of the enemy - i.e., the United States - to float by." It was supposed to use proxies: Russia destabilizes Europe, Iran destabilizes the Middle East and the oil market, and North Korea destabilizes the Asia-Pacific region. There are smaller players - in Africa and other regions.

In this construct, China only needed to provide resource and technological support. Russia, DPRK, Iran and China form a kind of military-technical cycle, where each country plays its own role. Russia, for example, invests in the Chinese economy; China supplies raw materials, components and technologies; these are deployed in the DPRK, Iran and Russia and turned into weapons used by proxies.

Without China, this "axis of evil" does not work. Russia, Iran, and the DPRK are not independently capable of providing the kind of flow of technology, money, and resources that allows for the creation of modern weapons. For example, when Shahed attacks a British base in Cyprus and Russian components are discovered, it is the result of this flow, supported by China.

If in Iran the United States really succeeds in reaching out to negotiating representatives of the former regime, then engaging the opposition and turning the country's transformation into a comprehensible process - focused on development, investment and legal oil trade, abandoning the ideas of participation in the global redistribution of the world together with Russia, China and North Korea - it will be a serious success.

It will be a huge blow for Russia. Consistently knocking out Chinese proxies makes Moscow nervous. Understandably, Putin's reasoning is standard: "We're a nuclear state, we won't be touched." I would not simplify it that way. Judging by the U.S. methodology, the leader is being torn down - and it is not necessary to launch a large-scale military operation or use nuclear weapons to do so.

Simultaneously, work is being done with those who are ready to negotiate. Judging by the activity of Kirill Dmitriev and other representatives of the Russian elite, negotiations may be conducted not only on Ukraine, but also on a wider range of issues. The sums being voiced - 12 trillion dollars and so on - look like the creation of a financial fog.

I would look around carefully if I were Vladimir Putin. It may turn out that after a while, the only completely inadequate leader other than Kim Jong-un will be him - a man who is impossible to negotiate with. And that's going to be a problem. Because, conditionally, Donald Trump can say: everyone wants to negotiate, there are signals from Russia about readiness to negotiate, but Putin does not want to. Then the question arises - why waste time?

If Iran succeeds - and I think the probability is high, especially since Iran itself has created an anti-Iranian coalition, shelling everything, including facilities in resort areas - the resources now deployed against it are enormous. With proper coordination, the operation could be successful. The U.S. is now openly declaring: they are not interested in the form of governance - that will be decided by the people of Iran. They are interested in having partners with whom they can have a normal dialogue, not relations with a terrorist organization.

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