"Sociology Shows That Orbán's Election Is His To Lose"

Tension between Ukraine and Hungary has reached a peak.

There are sparks between Ukraine and Hungary. A few days ago, Budapest detained the Ukrainian collectors of Oshchadbank. They were released, but Hungary arrested the money and gold. Prime Minister Viktor Orban demands in return for the return of money to unblock the Druzhba oil pipeline. Will Kiev take such a step?

About this, Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian political scientist, professor of Kyiv Taras Shevchenko National University Petr Oleshchuk:

- Yes, indeed, the tension has reached a maximum. But I think that here in general "Friendship" is not the main reason, although formally again, it is the number one reason. In fact, I think it's just the result of the Orbán government's long anti-Ukrainian policy, which reached its peak on the eve of the elections.

When Orbán was rapidly losing ground in Hungary itself, when the opposition forces started to gain more and more support because of the Prime Minister's accusations on purely domestic issues - such as corruption, scandals in the party - he could think of nothing else but to use the anti-Ukrainian theme as a basis for his election campaign.

Factually, for six months or more, the main theme has been the "unmasking" of the Ukrainian government. Constant attempts to "expose" the Ukrainian government, constant accusations of everything. Now there are probably more posters with Zelensky's image in Hungary than in Ukraine. They mold Zelensky into the image of an enemy who allegedly threatens them there.

At the same time, it should be understood that Ukraine is at war with Russia. Russia is regularly shelling Ukrainian oil and gas infrastructure - they have been doing just that for the last six months. To make any claims against Ukraine without making any claims against Russia is, to put it mildly, strange. If there had been no war and Ukraine had stopped supplying oil, then it would be possible to make some claims. Let Orban appeal to Putin to agree to a ceasefire. I'm sure if there was a ceasefire, Ukraine would agree to pump that very oil. But since there is nothing of the sort, Orban does nothing for a ceasefire, it is rather strange that he makes any claims.

In conditions of war, no one can guarantee anything. The Ukrainian energy sector is constantly being shelled, and I think that's the main bottom line. But overall, I think all of this will continue until April 12, when elections are scheduled in Hungary. There will be elections, and I think that maybe the situation will start to change one way or another. But nothing will happen before the elections, there will be hysteria, there will be provocations.

More than that, opposition leader Petr Magyar said that Russian specialists from the GRU are working in Hungary, helping Orban to hold elections. I think they have other provocations prepared for the voting day.

- Do you think that the Russian GRU will interfere in the parliamentary elections?

- I personally do not doubt it, this trace is clearly visible. Orban's campaign is absolutely no different in content from, for example, the Georgian Dream campaign in Georgia. The same anti-Ukrainian hysteria, the same "don't want war - vote for me", the same images - everything is the same. Russia was involved there too. So yes, I have no doubt that Russia is helping Orban.

More than that, Orban, regularly communicates with Putin. Recently Sijjarto (Hungarian Foreign Minister - Prim. Charter97.org) was once again in Moscow, Russia is building a nuclear power plant for Hungary, provides oil and gas supplies. Orban regularly makes pro-Russian statements, so it's no great revelation to anyone that Russia is likely working for Orban in this election.

- What are the chances of Orban's party in the election?

- It's hard to say. Sociology shows that Orbán should lose the election. But of course he also realizes it very well, and I think that he will grab power to the last, that is, it is not excluded that there will be falsifications, manipulations, and so on. It will probably cause protests. Things will be very complicated there.

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