Political Analyst: Kremlin Wants To Use Lukashenko Against Europe

There is a risk of escalation.

Why does Vladimir Zelenski mention Belarus in his speeches for the third time in the last two weeks, can Belarus become a Russian instrument of escalation against the European Union and what are the true goals of the Trump administration in the dialog with Minsk? This was discussed in the studio of "Belsat" by researcher of the Finnish Institute of International Relations Grigory Nizhnikov.

Grigory Nizhnikov believes that the frequent references of Vladimir Zelensky indicate the end of the period of ignoring the Belarusian threat and attempts to "reconcile" Lukashenko. After all, until recently, the guest of the program believes, Kiev had no policy towards Belarus.

"Now just Zelensky fully understands that there's a big threat from the Belarusian side, and it's necessary to work with it. That the approach, which was before, supposedly just pretending that everything is normal and that Lukashenko can control the situation - it doesn't work," says Nizhnikov.

Kiev, according to Nizhnikov, sees two dangerous trends: on the one hand, the unpredictability of U.S. policy and the risk that Trump's actions lay a mine under Ukraine, Europe and regional security in the region. And on the other hand, Minsk's dependence on Moscow, despite all the negotiations with Trump, remains high. And if the Kremlin decides to use Belarus in escalating the war, it will use it. Therefore, the threat from Minsk, when Moscow shows that it is ready to escalate this war even further, causes serious anxiety in Kiev.

In Grigory Nizhnikov's opinion, only a very hypothetical situation on the peace treaty is being discussed now. After all, there is no progress on it. Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine's surrender and is conducting the negotiation process in such a way as to drag out the time. Vladimir Zelensky's main goal is that the Americans do not withdraw from this process. That's why a lot of points that are spelled out in the almost agreed plan don't make any sense.

"Ukraine agrees to them, knowing that they don't need to anger Trump, and they just stick to the most important thing - the territorial issue. That is, they do everything so that the Americans do not accuse Ukraine of derailing Trump's wonderful peace plan," notes Grigory Nizhnikov.

In this situation, Belarus may become a tool of Russian escalation against Europe. After all, the Kremlin sees that still Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy facilities are working, and the money may run out at a certain time. Therefore, it is not excluded that in such a situation Russia may escalate.

"And they will escalate not in Ukraine, but in Europe. After all, it is more convenient, so the result will be more large-scale. And here Belarus will be very timely. Therefore, Belarus and Lukashenko may become a big victim of the failure of this peace plan of Trump," said the guest of our studio.

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