This Is The First Time Something Like This Has Happened In Belarus

The dollar's exchange rate has stabilized.

At the close of currency trading on the BVB last week, an unusual outcome occurred: over the course of the week, the dollar exchange rate remained unchanged to the fourth decimal place. This means that the change in the dollar exchange rate for the week was exactly zero percent. In his traditional review for myfin.by financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.

The dollar remains firmly in place

Thus, in the final trading sessions of the week and the month, the dollar exchange rate settled at USD/BYN 2.9640. The change for the week was 0.00%; year-to-date, the dollar remains up by +1.49%. Trading volume in the dollar on the Belarusian Stock Exchange (BSE) last week totaled $92.443 million, which is above the annual average.

The Russian ruble’s exchange rate change last week was virtually unchanged, with the ruble rising by a minimal +0.10%. Since the start of the year, the Russian currency’s lag has narrowed to -1.14%. The closing exchange rate on Friday was RUB/BYN 3.6635. Trading volume for the past week was 20,450.980 million rubles, or approximately $254.4 million in equivalent value, which is also above the annual average.

On the Russian over-the-counter market, the dollar exchange rate fell to USD/RUB 80.6 by the end of the week, although the market experienced slight volatility throughout the week. As we had forecast, the dollar exchange rate fell to its weekly low by October 28, the end of the tax period, but recovered some of its losses in the final days of the month.

Overall, the situation in the foreign exchange market is fairly predictable, with factors supporting the ruble prevailing. Among the main factors are record-high oil prices, including those for the Russian Urals grade. Furthermore, the Bank of Russia’s key rate remains unchanged, with no prospects for a change this year. Geopolitical détente, which has a chance of yielding tangible results.

However, on November 5, the Russian Ministry of Finance will announce new transaction volumes as part of its implementation of the budget rule, which could boost demand in the Russian interbank market. That said, the volume of supply in November will also increase as additional revenue flows in from high oil prices in September–October 2026.

Weekly Forecast

Overall, the coming week will be full of significant events. On Tuesday, November 3, the U.S. will hold midterm congressional elections that could reshape the country’s political landscape. We’ll find out exactly how things turn out in three or four days, but Mr. Trump has already promised a resumption of active hostilities in the Middle East. If this scenario plays out, oil prices will approach historic highs, which, on the whole, would benefit the Russian budget.

That’s the situation at the moment. In the long term, the political settlement process could either slow down or, conversely, accelerate. There are various possibilities, but it is practically impossible to predict them at this time.

Under a conservative scenario for next week, we can generally expect a minimal rise in the dollar exchange rate on the Belarusian foreign exchange market to USD/BYN 2.985–3.00. However, a further weakening of the dollar is also possible.

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