"Lukashenko Would Not Have Held On To Power."

Will "dictatorapad" reach Belarus?

A real "dictatorfall" has begun in the world. Just over a year ago, the regime of Bashar al-Assad collapsed, then the U.S. in one fell swoop Nicolas Maduro. Now the chairs of communist leaders in Cuba and other authoritarian rulers in Latin America are faltering. In Iran, the wave of protests continues unabated, and Donald Trump openly supports Iranian demonstrators.

Which prominent dictators could fall next? Which regimes now look the most shaky?

About this Charter97.org asked Maxim Pleshko, candidate of philosophical sciences, head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications:

- After the fall of Maduro's regime, Cuba and Nicaragua are next in line. This is such a triangle of regimes in Latin America. Since the U.S. has indicated its doctrine that it has complete control over the Western Hemisphere, it will clean up these dictatorial regimes as it sees fit.

With regard to Cuba, I was there personally about 15 years ago - and not just in one place, not just in Havana. I traveled around the island, saw everything with my own eyes. Let me put it this way: a country, but in fact a poor one. A poor country that reminds us of our 1990s: shortages, lack of goods. You seem to be a tourist, you have money, you are ready to buy something, but you still have to run, negotiate, look for something to sell or find the right goods. My impressions are as follows: I would not go to Cuba as a tourist for the second time, although the climate there is great, the coast is beautiful, people are very open and positive. But the country as a whole is poor, poor and poor again.

Havana: these old luxurious houses, which the communists gave to the residents as is, - they are still completely unrepaired. People live in huge families, often in dilapidated buildings. Cuba is a vestige of the old communist era. Obviously, it is Cuba that will collapse first, and this is logical: it has long held on to Venezuela's oil support.

The same goes for the neighboring regime in Nicaragua - it too has every chance to collapse. This is if we talk about Latin America.

If we return to Cuba, Trump has already actually given it a tough ultimatum. He has clearly signaled that the regime's time is coming to an end. And if Cuba is teetering on the brink, then cutting off energy supplies will make the situation critical.

I can confidently say: the Cubans will not go to defend this regime, which is so rotten that it has already driven them to despair. It's a matter of time.

- Should Lukashenko be afraid after the arrest of his ally Maduro? Can the "wave of the fall of dictatorships" reach Belarus?

- Any dictator has now begun to think and be afraid. Anyone. Dictators are bandits, pirates, who covered themselves with international law and legislation, but did what they wanted. In Lukashenko's case, it was migrant crises, violence, terror. But now there is a world "policeman" who no longer looks back on anything: if necessary, he will sweep away the next dictator.

As for Lukashenko, one should realize that he means nothing by himself. If it were not for Putin, no Trump would be needed - the Belarusian people and neighbors would have coped by themselves, Lukashenko would not have held on to power. Therefore, Lukashenko should fear first of all for the preservation of Putin's regime in Russia. As for Putin's regime, the year 2026 has begun rapidly, and everyone knows about the state of the Russian economy - about recession, about extremely negative scenarios.

The regime of controlled chaos that is being kept there will not last long. I know and hope that 2026 may be Putin's last year as a dictator. And if Putin doesn't become Putin, Lukashenko won't become Lukashenko either.

To answer figuratively: if Koschei the Deathless has a needle in his egg, then "Lukashenko's needle" lies somewhere in Putin's suitcase in the Kremlin. That is, Lukashenko should be afraid first of all for the fate of Putin's regime. Plus, it should be taken into account that so far a rather respectful communication tone has been maintained between him and the Trump administration. Trump is not threatening Lukashenko yet - he understands perfectly well that Lukashenko is not a subject.

If Russia decides to attack the Baltic States, the Suvalki corridor or repeat the strike on Ukraine - Lukashenko is no longer able to stop it. He is not a subject in the dictatorial interstate hierarchy. He is what is called "my vassal's vassal." He is only Putin's vassal. So I repeat: he fears for the preservation of Putin's regime.

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